EMF Publications

The Costs of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation


John P. Weyant, ed. - Stanford University

Published by
Energy Journal (special issue), May 1999

This Special Issue of The Energy Journal represents the first comprehensive report on a comparative set of modeling analyses of the economic and energy sector impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change. Organized by the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), the objectives of this study were the same as for previous EMF studies: (1) identifying policy-relevant insights and analyses that are robust across a wide range of models, (2) providing explanations for differences in results from different models, and (3) identifying high priority areas for future research. This study has produced a particularly rich set of results in all three areas, which is a tribute to the active participation of the modeling teams and the care each team took in preparing its paper. The volume consists of a paper by each modeling team on what it did and what it concluded from the model runs that were undertaken, proceeded by this introduction and summary paper. This summary focuses on the motivation for the study, the design of the study scenarios, and the interpretation of results for the four core scenarios, which all the teams ran. Each succeeding chapter contains ideas and insights drawn by the modeling teams from applying their models to issues they were able to address selected from a small set of important areas on which the group had mutually agreed to focus.

Table of Contents

  1. The Kyoto Protocol: A Cost-Effective Strategy for Meeting Environmental Objectives?
    by Alan S. Manne (Professor Emeritus of Operations Research, Stanford University) and Richard Richels (Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA

  2. The Economics of the Kyoto Protocol
    by Christopher N. MacCracken, James A. Edmonds, Son H. Kim and Ronald D. Sands (PNNL, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Washington, DC)

  3. Adjustment Time, Capital Malleability, and Policy Cost
    by Henry D. Jacoby and Ian Sue Wing (Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA)

  4. Requiem for Kyoto: An Economic Analysis of the Kyoto Protocol
    by William D. Nordhaus and Joseph G. Boyer (Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT)

  5. Kyoto, Efficiency, and Cost-Effectiveness: Applications of FUND
    by Richard S.J. Tol (IVM, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam)

  6. Analysis of Carbon Emission Stabilization Targets and Adaptation by Integrated Assessment Model
    by Atsushi Kurosawa (Research and Development Division, Institute of Applied Energy, Tokyo), Hiroshi Yagita, Zhou Weisheng, Koji Tokimatsu (RITE, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Japan) and Yukio Yanagisawa (Global Environmental Engineering Program, University of Tokyo).

  7. Clubs, Ceilings and CDM: Macroeconomics of Compliance with the Kyoto Protocol
    by Johannes Bollen (RIVM, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, The Netherlands), Arjen Gielen (Ministry of Economic Affairs, The Netherlands), and Hans Timmer (CPB, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis).

  8. Analysis of Post-Kyoto Scenarios: The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model
    by Mikiko Kainuma (Global Environment Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan) and Yuzuri Matsuoka (Faculty of Engineering, Kyoto University) and Tsuneyuki Morita (Global Environment Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan).

  9. Effects of Restrictions on International Permit Trading: The MS-MRT Model
    by Paul M. Bernstein, W. David Montgomery (Charles River Associates, Inc.), Thomas F. Rutherford (Department of Economics, University of Colorado) and and Gui-Fang Yang (Charles River Associates, Inc.)

  10. The Kyoto Protocol: An Economic Analysis Using GTEM
    by Vivek Tulpulé, Stephen Brown, Jaekyu Lim, Cain Polidano, Hom Pant and Brian S. Fisher (ABARE, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Canberra, Australia)

  11. Emissions Trading, Capital Flows and the Kyoto Protocol
    by Warwick J. McKibbin (Asia Pacific School of Economics and Management, Australian National University; and The Brookings Institution), Martin T. Ross, Robert Shackleton (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) and Peter J. Wilcoxen (Department of Economics, University of Texas at Austin; and The Brookings Institution, Washington).

  12. The Economic Implications of Reducing Carbon Emissions: A Cross-Country Quantitative Investigation Using the Oxford Global Macroeconomic and Energy Model
    by Adrian Cooper, Scott Livermore, Vanessa Rossi, Alan Wilson and John Walker (Oxford Economic Forecasting Limited, Oxford, United Kingdom)

  13. CO2 Emissions Control Agreements: Incentives for Regional Participation
    by Stephen C. Peck (EPRI, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA) and Thomas J. Teisberg (Teisberg Associates, Charlottesville, VA)