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Agenda and Presentations

Snowmass Workshop Week 1 Agenda

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Welcome

  • John Weyant (Stanford University)

Introduction and Meeting Goals

  • Haroon Kheshgi (ExxonMobil Research & Engineering Company)

 

Session 1:  What came out of Paris?

What are the key features of the agreement and what are the potential consequences of its successful implementation?

What is the outlook for future action?

What is the role of IA in informing goals and pathways?

  • Chair: Bryan Mignone, (ExxonMobil Research & Engineering Company)

What Came Out of Paris

  • Jonathan Pershing (U.S. State Department)

Can Paris Pledges Avert Severe Climate Change?

  • Allen Fawcett (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency)

 

Session 2:  Climate in the context of SDGs

How will the pursuit of other priorities and goals affect implementation of the Paris Agreement or longer-term pathways?

What is the role of IA more generally in informing goals, development, and transformation pathways?

  • Chair: John Weyant (Stanford University)

The SDG's

  • Stephane Hallegatte (World Bank)

Interactions Among the SDGs and NDCs: What has been learned about interactions effects between SDGs and mitigation policies?

  • Keywan Riahi (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

 

Session 3:  Implementation of the NDCs

What policies and measures will be used to implement the NDCs?

What is the connection between the NDCs and longer-term goals?

What are the best metrics for evaluating these policies and what can one learn from such evaluation?

  • Chair: Bryan Mignone (ExxonMobil Research & Engineering Company)

INDC+/NDC China's Low Carbon and Energy Transition: Peaking CO2 emission in 2020-2022

  • Jiang Kejun (Energy Research Institute)

Japan NDC (AIM/ Endusee [Japan]) Global Emissions trading under NDCs (AIM/CGE[global])

  • Shinichiro Fujimori (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

U.S. Climate Policies and Clean Energy Technologies

  • Elke Hodson(U.S. Department of Energy)

Some Remarks on Implementation of NDCs

  • Kenneth Gillingham (Yale University)

 

Thursday, July 21, 2016

 

Session 4:  Infrastructure and Technology Deployment in Transformation Pathways

What are indicators of infrastructure and technology transformation?

What barriers could be encountered, and what does this imply for the pace of transformation?

  • Chair: Haroon Kheshgi (ExxonMobil Research & Engineering Company)

Infrastructure and Technology Deployment in Transformation Pathways

  • Haroon Kheshgi (ExxonMobil Research & Engineering Company)

Investments and Financial Flows for Climate Change Mitigation

  • Emanuele Massetti (Georgia Institute of Technology)

Issues for Financing Transformation Investments

  • John Parsons (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

 

Session 5:  Institutions in Transformation Pathways

How will existing institutions and institutional change shape pathways?

What barriers could be encountered, and what does this imply for the pace of transformation?

Effects of Institutions on "Transformation"

  • David Victor (University of California at San Diego)

How Will We Know If We Are On track? Challenges and Opportunities for...Verification

  • Ghassem Asrar (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory)

 

Session 6:  Transformation Pathways in Models – From NDCs through Midcentury

What are credible pathways through 2050?

How do models handle barriers discussed above?

What are useful indicators of transformation in models?

  • Chair: Max Tavoni (FEEM)

Role of Natural Gas in Scenarios of US Transformation

  • Bryan Mignone (ExxonMobil Research & Engineering Company)

Mid-Century Pathways

  • Gokul Iyer (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory)

 

Session 7:  Transformation Pathways in Models – Examining Longer-term Goals

What are credible pathways through 2100?

How do models handle barriers discussed above?

What are useful indicators of transformation in models?

  • Chair: Haroon Kheshgi (ExxonMobil Research & Engineering Company)

Land Use and Climate Goals

  • Steve Rose (Electric Power Research Institute)

Global Carbon Project

  • Detlef van Vuuren (The PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

CD LINKS- Linking Climate and Development Policies- Leveraging...Knowledge Sharing

  • Valentina Bosetti (Bocconi University)

 

Friday, July 22, 2016

Session 8: Assessing Transformation Pathways and 1.5oC

What is implied for near-term and long-term goals, and how might this be assessed?

What additional information is needed for assessment?

  • Chair: Valentina Bosetti, (Bocconi University)

IPCC AR6, the Special Report on 1.5oC and the IAM Community

  • Jim Skea & P.R. Shukla (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)

What Do We Know So Far About Getting To 1.5oC?

  • Elmar Kriegler (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PIK)

The Paris Research Agenda: Findings from the First Implications of Paris Workshop

  • Jae Edmonds (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory)

EU INDC & Mid-Century Strategies with Overview of European Commission's Modeler Support Projects 

  • Perry Miles (European Commission, DG Climate) 

Climate- SDG linkages

  •   John Weyant (Stanford University)

Comments on Instruments Related to the Demand for Energy

  • Jim Sweeney (Stanford University)

 

Session 9: Final Discussion of Barriers

Possible Directions for Better Reflecting Barriers to Large Scale Energy and Land System Transitions in Integrated Assessment Models

  • What are the most relevant and useful metrics, indicators and signposts of transformation in the categories below?
  • What are the most important barriers or real world features to consider in the categories below?
  • How can these barriers be most appropriately included as structural or input assumptions to model and which indicators are most important to consider as outputs of models?

Introduction to Discussion: Bryan Mignone (ExxonMobil Research & Engineering Company)

 

Session 10: Next Steps: Transformation Pathways and IAMs

Possible Directions for Better Reflecting Barriers to Large Scale Energy and Land System Transitions in Integrated Assessment Models (continued)

  • What research pathways, model development activities and/or community efforts are needed for IAMs to provide relevant information?

Chair: Max Tavoni (FEEM) & Bryan Mignone (ExxonMobil Research & Engineering Company)

 

Session 11: Next Steps: Transformation Pathways and Assesments

How should assessments be structured to provide relevant information?

  • Week 1 Conclusion, Week 2 Introduction
  • Informal Discussions

​Chair: Haroon Kheshgi (ExxonMobil Research & Engineering Company) and Jae Edmonds (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory)

Week 2: July 25 to July 29, 2016

Monday, July 25, 2016

Snowmass Conference Week 2 Agenda

2016 Full Report

  • Kate Calvin (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory)
  • Karen Fisher-Vanden (Pennsylvania State University)
  • Richard Moss (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory)
  • John Weyant (Stanford University) 

Session 1: Introduction

Introduction

  • Chair:  John Weyant (Stanford University)  Notetaker: Karen Fisher-Vanden

Introduction and Meeting Goals

  • Kate Calvin (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

Drivers for Federal Investment to Integrate IA-IAV-ESM-ABM Capabilities

  • Gary Geernaert (U.S. Department of Energy)

Scientific Drivers, Needs, and Trends in Integrated Human- Earth System Modeling...Enegy Water Land Nexus

  • Bob Vallario (U.S. Department of Energy)

Capabilities and Gaps in Integrated Human-Earth System Modeling...Energy Water Land Nexus

  • Dorothy Koch (U.S. Department of Energy)

 

Session 2: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

Chair: Kate Calvin (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory)  Notetaker: Leon Clarke

IAV Science Questions that Require Coupling and/or Inputs from IAM/ESM

  • John Weyant (Stanford University)

Linking IAV, IAM and ESM: Results of a Interagency Workshop

  • Richard Moss  (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) & Karen Fisher-Vanden (PSU)

 

Session 3: Update from Existing Projects

Chair: Richard Moss (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory) Notetaker: Ian Sue Wing

Comparing Methods and Improving the Emperical Foundations of Agricultural Impacts—an Inter-method Comparison Exercise

  • Karen Fisher-Vanden (PSU), Juan Carlos Ciscar (European Commission, The Institute for Prospective Technological Studies)

Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Models Methods for Agriculture and Land 

  • Alex Ruane (National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NASA)

News From ISIMIP

  • Franziska Piontek (PIK)

 

Session 4: Coupling for IAV

Chair: Steve Rose (EPRI)  Notetaker: Richard Moss

Coupling for IAV: Energy

  • Mort Webster (Pennsylvania State University)

Coupling for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability- Water

  • Richard Lammers (University of New Hampshire)

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Community Efforts for Agriculture and Food Security

  • Alex Ruane (NASA)

 

Session 5: Cross-Sectoral Challenges

Chair: Karen Fisher-Vanden (PSU) Notetaker: Mohamad Hejazi

Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities in IAM-ESM-IAV... Temporal Analysis of Energy-Water-Land System

  • Ian Kraucunas (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, PNNL)

Integrating IAV Concepts into IAMs

  • Ian Sue Wing (Boston University)

IAM As a Coordinating Mechanism to Integrate Impacts Across Sectors and Regions

  • Kate Calvin (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory

 

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Session 1: Integrated Assessment Models

Chair: Keywan Riahi (IIASA) Notetaker: John Weyant

Scientific Drivers, Needs, and Trends: An EU Perspective

  • Miles Perry for Tom van Ierland (European Commission)

The Evolving Integrated Assessment Modeling Community Research Agenda 

  • Leon Clarke (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

IAM Science Questions that Require Coupling and/or Inputs from IAV/ESM

  • Detlef van Vuuren (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL)

 

Session 2:  Update from Existing Projects

Chair: Jae Edmonds (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory)  Notetaker: Mort Webster

Opportunities for Integration of Remote Sensing, Integrated Assessment, and Adaptation Science

  • Ghassem Asrar (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

The World in 2050: A Transformative Change Agenda

  • Nebojsa Nakicenovic (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA)

Update from CD-Links

  • Valentina Bosetti (Bocconi University)

 

Session 3: Coupling for IAM

Chair: Leon Clarke (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory) Notetaker: Ian Kraucunas

Coupling energy-models for better representation of cross-sectoral dynamics

  • Keywan Riahi (IIASA)
  • Mohamad Hejazi (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

Coupling for IAM: Land

  • Erwan Monier for John Reilly (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

 

Session 4: Cross-Sectoral Model Coupling Challenges

Chair: Rob Nicholas (PSU) Notetaker: Andy Jones

Resolution challenges in IPETS/CLM or Tools for Human-Earth System Interaction & Scaling (Thesis)

  • Brian O’Neill (National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR)

IAM/IAV/ESM Linkage in AIM Project-Focusing Spatial Resolution Issues

  • Kiyoshi Takahashi (National Institue for Environmental Studies, NIES)

Resolution Challenges in CIRA

  • Jim McFarland (U.S. EPA)

 

Session 5: Perspectives on Uncertainty

Chair: Erwan Monier (MIT) Notetaker: Jim McFarland

Modeling Uncertainty in IAV

  • Rob Lempert (RAND)

Uncertainty in IAMS

  • Massimo Tavoni (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, FEEM)

Quantifying Uncertainties Using Earth System Models to Inform Decision Making

  • Klaus Keller (Pennsylvania State University)

 

 

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Session 1:  Earth Systems Models

Chair: Ghassem Asrar (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory) Notetaker: Rob Nicholas

ESM Science Questions that Require Coupling and/or Inputs from IAM/IAV

  • Jean-Francois Lamarque (National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR)

ScenarioMIP: The Up and Coming CMIP6 Scenarios

  • Claudia Tebaldi (National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR)

Science, Scenarios & Co-development Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) and GCAM (& IAV ?)

  • Dorothy Koch (U.S. Department of Energy)

 

Session 2: Update from Existing Projects

Chair: Ghassem Asrar (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory) Notetaker: Klaus Keller

Impact Relevance and Usability of High Resolution Climate Modeling and Datasets

  • Andy Jones (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

 

Session 3: Coupling for ESM

Chair: Andy Jones (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory) Notetaker: Claudia Tebaldi

Coupling for ESM: The IGSM

  • Erwan Monier (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Coupling for ESM: CESM & iPETS

  • Peter Lawrence (National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR)

Coupling for ESM: The Integrated Easrt System Model (iESM)

  • Bill Collins (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

Coupling of IMAGE and CGM/ESMs

  • Detlef van Vuuren (PBL)

 

Session 4: Approaches for Climate Model Information

Chair: Klaus Keller (PSU) Notetaker: Erwan Monier

Characterization of Extremes (remote presentation)

  • Noah Diffenbaugh (Stanford University)

High Resolution Climate Modeling

  • Ruby Leung (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory)

Pattern Scaling and Climate Statistics

  • Claudia Tebaldi (NCAR)

Integration of Climate Information for Impacts, Adaptation, and Decision Support

  • Rob Nicholas (Pennsylvania State University)

 

 

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Breakout Group Guidelines

Session 1:  Breakout Sessions on Use Cases from the IA-IAV-ESM Workshop May 24-26

Overview of use Cases. Diagrams, Capabilities Needed Richard Moss and Karen Fisher-Vanden

Breakout Session Presentations

Group 1   Electric power generation and distribution, given changing demand, prices, supply technologies, climate,land use and other relevant factors

                Facilitator:    Leon Clarke

                Notetaker:    John Weyant


Group 2  Water resources management, given changes in demand, population, land use, institutions, and operating rules, and other factors

                Facilitator:    Steve Frolking

                Notetaker:    Karen Fisher-Vanden 

                

Group 3   Productivity of agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems to meet changing demand of food, fiber, and other ecosystem goods and services

                Facilitator:    Brian O'Neill

                Notetaker:    Kate Calvin

 

Session 2:  Coupling IAV Models, IAMs and ESMs

Chair: Ian Kraucunas 

Panel Discussion on Coupling

Juan Carlos Ciscar (European Commission)

Peter Lawrence (NCAR)

Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia University)

Ian Sue Wing (Boston University)

Friday, July 29, 2016

Conclusions/ Wrap up/ Next Steps

Writing Session with Co-chairs

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