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Agenda and Presentations

Snowmass Workshop 2014

Tuesday, July 22 AM

SESSION 1:  INTEGRATED IMPACTS

--Setting the stage

Welcome & Introduction of Steering Committee

  • John Weyant, Stanford University

National Climate Assessment

  • Tony Janetos, Boston University

IPCC WG2

  • Ian Noble, Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange

Risky Business

  • Bob Kopp, Rutgers University

Social Cost of Carbon

  • Stephanie Waldhoff-(remote), Joint Global Change Research Institute

Energy, Water, Land Climate Change Interactions:  A DOE Perspective

  • Bob Vallario, U.S. Department of Energy

City of Boston Climate Impacts and Adaptation Planning

  • Brian Swett, City of Boston

 

Tuesday, July 22 PM

The State of the Art in Understanding Potential Climate Impacts and Adaptation

Energy: Empirical estimates of impacts

  • Ian Sue Wing, Boston University

Water: Process modeling of water

Additional ReadingQuantifying the link between crop production and mined groundwater irrigation in China (by Danielle S. Grogan, Fan Zhang, Alexander Prusevich)

  • Steve Frolking, University of New Hampshire

Water

  •  Pat Reed, Penn State University

Adaptation for city infrastructure

  •  Paul Kirshen, University of New Hampshire

Sea Level and Extreme Events

  • Bob Kopp, Rutgers University

Wednesday, July 23 AM

The State of the Art in Understanding Potential Climate Impacts and Adaptation (continued)

Agriculture: Empirical estimates of impacts

  • Wolfram Schlenker, Columbia University

Agriculture: Empirical estimates of adaptation

  • Rob Mendelsohn, Yale University

Agriculture: Process models of impacts/adaptation

  • Allison Thomson, JGCRI/PNNL

 

Wednesday, July 23 PM

Moving Forward with Model-Based Impacts Assessment

Introduction and goals of the session

  • Kate Calvin, JGCRI/PNNL

Part 1: Individual Sector Studies

Energy

  • Ian Sue Wing, Boston University

Agriculture

Additional Reading:  AgMIP’s Trans-disciplinary Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impact, Vulnerability and Adaptation of Agricultural Systems (Authors: John Antle, Roberto Valdivia, Ken Boote, Jerry Hatfield, Sander Janssen, Jim Jones,Cheryl Porter, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alex Ruane, and Peter Thorburn)

  • John Antle, Oregon State University

Food Security

  • Tomoko Hasegawa, National Institute for Environmental Studies 

Water

  • Jim Shortle, Penn State University

Extreme Events and Catastrophes

  • Michael Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBL)

Additional Reading:  Integrated Impacts and Infrastructure Planning

  • Tom Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)

 

Thursday, July 24 AM

Moving Forward with Model-Based Impacts Assessment (continued)

Part 2: Multi-sectoral studies

Energy-water-land at the sub-national scale

Additional Reading:  Investigating the nexus of climate, energy, water,and land at decision-relevant scales: the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA)--(Authors: Ian Kraucunas, Leon Clarke, James Dirks, John Hathaway, Mohamad Hejazi, Kathy Hibbard, Maoyi Huang,  Chunlian Jin, Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kerstin Kleese van Dam, Ruby Leung, Hong-Yi Li, Richard Moss, Marty Peterson, Jennie Rice, Michael Scott, Allison Thomson, Nathalie Voisin and Tristram West.)

  • Ian Kraucunas, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Energy-water-land at the national scale

  • Jim McFarland, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Energy-water-land at the global scale

  • Katja Frieler, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research

Part 3: Understanding aggregate economic impacts

The social cost of carbon

  • David Anthoff, University of California at Berkeley

PESETA

  • Juan-Carlos Ciscar, IPTS/EC

Open Discussion

  • Bryan Mignone, U.S. Department of Energy

 

Thursday, July 24 PM

Moving Forward with IAMs

GCAM Modeling Energy-Water-Land Impacts 

  • Jae Edmonds, JGCRI/PNNL

IGSM - *** 

  • John Reilly, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

MERGE - *** 

  • Geoff Blanford, EPRI

MESSAGE  *** 

  • Detlef van Vuuren, PBL

 

Friday, July 25 AM

Summary- Addressing our Science Questions

  • John Weyant, Stanford University

Topic #1 Discussion

  • Steve Rose, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)

Topic #2 Discussion

  • Bas van Ruijven, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)

Topic #3 Discussion

  • Habiba Gitay, World Bank

Topic #4 Discussion

  • Erwan Monier, MIT

Topic #5 Discussion

  • ​Kate Gordon, Next Generation

 

Friday, July 25 PM

--Summary of Previous Sessions and Next Steps--Part 1

Congressional Outlook for Climate Policy

  • Jeff Bingaman, Retired U.S. Senator

Revisiting Our Users

  • Bob Vallario, U.S. Department of Energy; Jim McFarland, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency & others

--Summary of Previous Sessions and Next Steps--Part 2

Setting the stage

  • Tony Janetos, Boston University

The state of the art

  • Karen Fisher-Vanden, Penn State University

Moving forward with impacts assessment

  • Kate Calvin, JGCRI/PNNL

Moving forward with IAMs

  • Geoff Blanford, EPRI

 

Monday, July 28 AM

SESSION 2:  ON MODELING UNCERTAINTY PROJECT (MUP)

Overview of the Project and the Parallel Track Approach

  • Bill Nordhaus and Ken Gillingham, Yale University

Overview of Results Using the Lattice Diagrams

  • Bill Nordhaus and Paul Sztorc, Yale University

Surface Response Functions and Discussion

  • Modeler's Presentations by:  MERGE, FUND, GCAM, IGSM, WITCH, DICE
  • Bill Nordhaus, Yale University and Paul Sztorc, Yale University

General Discussion of Track I Methods and Results

  • Jae Edmonds 

 

Monday, July 28 PM

Overview of Development

  • Ken Gillingham, Yale University

Expert Elicitation of Total Factor Productivity

  • Peter Christensen, Yale University and Elmar Kreigler, Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research

Temperature sensitivity coefficient 

  • Ken Gillingham, Yale University and Klaus Keller, Penn State University

Stochastic Projections of Population

  • Bill Nordhaus, Yale University and John Reilly, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Illustrative Results Combining the Two Tracks

  • Bill Nordhaus and Paul Sztorc, Yale University 

General Discussion

 

Tuesday, July 29 AM

SESSION 3:  WORKSHOP ON DECISION ANALYSIS FOR CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT

Welcome, Introduction, and Overview of the Decision-Problems and Analytical Challenges

  • Klaus Keller, Penn State University

Coupled Epistemic Ethic Questions in Climate Risk Management

  • Nancy Tuana, Penn State University

Deep Uncertainty and Decision Analysis

  • Detlof von Winterfeldt, USC

How do Decisionmakers Decide?

  • David Budescu, Fordham University

 

Tuesday, July 29 PM

Utilitarianism, Prioritarianism, and Climate Change

  • Matthew Adler, Duke Law School

Strengths and Weaknesses of Expected Utility Maximization

  • Bill Nordhaus, Yale University

Decisionmaking under Deep Uncertainty and Disagreement

  • Geoffrey Heal, Columbia University

Robust Decisionmaking, Value Diversity, Trade-off Analyses

  • Rob Lempert, Rand Corporation

 

Wednesday, July 30 AM

SESSION 4: NEEDS FOR SCENARIOS: SCIENCE, ASSESSMENTS AND DECISIONMAKING

Overview

  • Richard Moss, JGCRI/PNNL, John Weyant, and Steering Committee

Integrating Socioeconomic, Climate, and Environmental Scenarios – Status Update and Key Questions

  • Brian O’Neill, UCAR and Steering Committee

Connecting Scenarios and Impacts Research: Needs and Capabilities -- Report from Impacts Session Week 1

  • Kate Calvin, JGCRI/PNNL

Overview: Review of the Challenges and Session Objectives

  • Klaus Keller, Penn State University

Need for and Use of Probabilistic Climate Projections

  • Suraje Dessai, University of Leeds, and Robert Lempert, Rand Corporation

 

Wednesday, July 30 PM

Climate Modeling Approaches for Providing Probabilistic Information on Potential Future Climates

  • Jerry Meehl, NCAR 

An Overview of Approaches to Probabilistic Projections of Future Climate Changes

  • Claudia Tebaldi, Climate Central/NCAR

Probabilistic Futures for Emissions and Forcing

  • Keywan Riahi, IIASA and Detlef van Vuuren, PBL

Expert Elicitation and Parametric Analysis Using Boundary Conditions

  • Detlof von Winterfeldt, USC

Discussion: Probabilistic Scenarios

  • Ben Preston, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

 

Thursday, July 31 AM

Introduction

  • Jae Edmonds, JGCRI/PNNL (w/ input from Patwardhan, Riahi)

SSPs: Status and Analysis of Early Results

 

  • Keywan Riahi, IIASA

Water and Environmental Resources Adaptation Planning:  Information Needs

  • Levi Brekke, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Integrating Extreme Events into Climate Risk Management

  • Tom Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

 

Thursday, July 31 PM

Introduction

  • Anand Patwardhan, University of Maryland

Climate, Conflict, Health, and Economy Interactions 

  • Elisabeth Gilmore, University of Maryland

The Joint Research Center PESETA II (Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis)

  • Juan-Carlos Ciscar, IPTS/EC

Global Change and Food Security Project

  • Joost Vervoort, Oxford University

Nested downscaled scenarios for resource assessment

  • Ben Sleeter, U.S. Geological Survey

Coordinating national/subnational scale scenarios in the US

  • Fred Lipschultz – USGCRP/NASA

 

Friday, August 1 AM

General Discussion

  • Brian O’Neill, UCAR 

Introduction

  • Detlef van Vuuren, PBL

Possible questions that ScenarioMIP (and other related MIPs) could address, and implications for scenarios

  • Brian O’Neill, UCAR

Experimental design considerations: The role of pattern scaling, statistical sampling of GCMs, and the significance of differences between climate scenarios

  • Claudia Tebaldi, Climate Central/NCAR

Plans for Aerosols and Chemistry MIP (AerChemMIP) and relevance to ScenarioMIP

  • Jean-Francois Lamarque, NCAR 

Plans for Land Use MIP (LUMIP) and relevance to ScenarioMIP

  • Kate Calvin, PNNL

Proposal for Land Use Model Inter-comparison project (LUMIP) 

  • George Hurtt, University of Maryland

Status of IAM scenarios based on SSPs, and relevance to possible ScenarioMIP design

  • Detlef van Vuuren, PBL

 

Friday, August 1 PM

Group Discussion

  • Kate Calvin, PNNL

Group Discussion

  • Ian Noble, Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange

Summary 

John Weyant, Stanford University