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Agendas and Presentations

Snowmass Workshop 

July 22- August 2, 2013

Monday, July 22, 2013

Session #1: Modeling Renewable Energy Initiative

  • Organized by Doug Arent, Patrick Sullivan, Leon Clarke, Gunnar Luderer, and John Weyant

Welcome & Introduction 

  • John Weyant 

Introduction to Modeling Renewable Energy Initiative (revised) 

  • Doug Arent

Part 1: Global Wind Supply Curves 

  • Patrick Sullivan

Integrating New Wind Potentials at NIES

  • Shinichiro Fujimori

Part 2: IAM Crosscut - Resource Scenarios

Presentation Supplement 

  • Patrick Sullivan

IAM Perspective on Wind Resource Potentials

  • Nico Bauer

General discussion about next steps to improve resource potentials for IAM's

  • Bas van Ruijven (Moderator)

Storage & Flexibility Options for VRRE Integration?

  • Paul Denholm

The Economics of Variability & Implications for IAM's

  • Falko Ueckerdt

Results from IAM low/high integration scenarios (revised)

  • Robert Pietzcker

IAM Discussion on Wind Energy

  • Leon Clarke 

"Bottom-up Discussant on IAM VRRE integration"

  • Paul Denholm

Discussion on possible future integration constraints

Discussion of cost metrics for (and parameterization of) integration constraints

Next steps for VRRE Integration Analysis - ADVANCE meeting in November

  • Leon Clarke (Moderator)

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Session #1 continued:

Crosscut - Competition & Carbon

  • Nico Bauer

Technology Characterization Wilson: Technology Characterization

  • Tom Wilson

Technology Characterization - Top-Down, Bottom-Up Integration

  • Ian Sue Wing

Importane of Modeling Renewables - Wide-Angle Perspective

  • Asami Miketa

Group discussion: Priorities, Reactions, and Comments

  • John Weyant & Doug Arent (Moderators)

Next Steps for the Renewables Initiative: Special Issue? Time frame. Next study operating committee.

  • Doug Arent (Moderator)

Integrated Impacts Overview

  • John Weyant

Papers & Readings from Session #1:

Improved Offshore Wind Resource Assessment in Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios

  • Doug Arent

PNNL EST Global Wind 2013

  • Yuyu Zhou, Patrick Lucklow, Steven J. Smith, and Leon Clarke

PNNL CSP Energy Policy Paper

  • Yabei Zhang, Steven J. Smith, G. Page Kyle, and Paul W. Stackhouse Jr.

Impacts of Considering Electric Sector Variability and Reliability in the MESSAGE model

  • Patrick Sullivan, Volker Krey, and Keywan Riahi

Variable Renewable Energy in modeling climate change mitigation scenarios

  • Falko Ueckerdt, Robert Brecha, Gunnar Luderer, Patrick Sullivan, Eva Schmid, Nico Bauer, and Diana Böttger

Climate Change

  • Nico Bauer

 

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Session #2: Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment

  • Organized by Gary Yohe, Rich Richels, Tony Janetos, Max Tavoni, and John Weyant

Integrated Impacts Overview

  • John Weyant

"What do Policy Makers want to know? How do we communicate it?"

  • Joe Aldy, Allen Fawcett, Juan-Carlos Ciscar, Saleem Huq, & T.C. Richmond (Panelists)

Climate Extremes Research (revised)

  • Ken Kunkel

Climate Change Research- Recent Findings & New Directions

  • Don Weubbles

What Policy Makers Want to Know

  • Allen Fawcett

CIRA - Estimating Avoided Impacts from GHG Mitigation

  • Allen Fawcett

Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts in Europe

  • Juan-Carlos Ciscar

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Session #2 continued:

Introduction

  • Gary Yohe (Moderator)

Valuing Market & Non-Market Impacts

  • Charles Kolstad

Role of Adaptation Wilbanks: Role of Adaptation

  • Tom Wilbanks

Discussion

  • Gary Yohe & David Anthoff (moderators)

Measuring Impacts

  • Robert Mendelsohn

Approaches to Modeling Impacts

  • Anthony Janetos

Approaches to Measuring Impacts

  • Karen Fisher-Vanden

Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways

  • Shinichiro Fujimori

Discussion

  • Niven Winchester & Kate Calvin (Moderators)

Modeling Catastrophes Rutherford: Modeling Catastrophes

  • Thomas Rutherford

Characterizing Impacts

  • Richard Richels

Real Impacts - Irene & Sandy Solecki: Real Impacts - Irene & Sandy

  • William Solecki

"Take Home Messages for Policy Makers"

  • T.C. Richmond, Juan-Carlos Ciscar, & Saleem Huq

Friday, July 26, 2013

Session #2 continued:

Introduction

  • Richard Richels (Moderator)

"The social cost of carbon"

  • Stephanie Waldhoff

"Can USG SCC's guide climate policy?"

  • Steven Rose

Pricing Carbon

  • Gary Yohe

"The Importance of Scenarios in Climate Change Impacts Analyses"

  • Richard Moss

"A political economy"

  • Joe Aldy (Panelist)

"A political economy"

  • David Victor (Panelist)

Thoughts on the Political Economy of Climate Change Policy

  • Jonathan Wiener

"A political economy" 

  • Reilly, John (Panelist & discussion leader)

Climate Change Impacts - Connecting Science with IAM's

  • Ian Sue Wing

"Science Needs"

  • Kate Calvin (Panelist)

Needs from Science

  • John Reilly

"Science Needs"

  • Don Wuebbles & Ken Kunkel (Panelist & discussion leaders)

Integrated Assessment Modeling - Where do we want to be in five years?

  • Jae Edmonds

IAM

  • Detlef van Vuuren (Panelist)

MIT's Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM)

  • John Reilly

MERGE Impacts

  • Steven Rose

IAM's Panel

  • Enrica De Cian

"Representative Consumers"

  • Juan-Carlos Ciscar (Panelist)

"Representative Consumers"

  • David Victor (Panelist)

"Representative Consumers"

  • Jonathan Pershing (Panelist)

 

Papers & Readings from Session #2:

Article related to morning panel sessio:  |Determining Benefits and Costs for Future Generations

Are Cereals Globally in Trouble?

  • De Cian

Two papers submitted by Toshihiko Masui: "Global Water Scarcity Assessment" Part 1 & Part 2

  • Shinichiro Fujimori

Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries| (free registration required)

  • Robert Mendelsohn

NPCC-Climate-Risk-Information-2013-Report

  • William Solecki

Wiener: Mechanism Choice 

  • Wiener, Jonathan B & Richman, Barak D - "Mechanism Choice," chapter 11 in Farber, Daniel A & O'Connell, Anne Josepth, eds., Research Handbook on Public Choice and Public Law (Elgar, Edward 2010), pp. 363-396.
 
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Agenda:   Week Two|     

Monday, July 29, 2013

Week Two Overview 

  • John Weyant

Session #3: Uncertainty Analysis in Integrated Assessment Models

  • Conveners: Ken Gillingham and Bill Nordhaus

"Overview of the Project"

  • Bill Nordhaus

Uncertainty Analysis in IAM's - Major Steps over the Last Year

  • Ken Gillingham

Observations from MERGE uncertainty modeling round 2

  • Steven Rose

MUP - Full Permutation Experiment with GCAM

  • Haewon McJeon

MUP Fund Contribution

  • David Anthoff

MUG-WITCH 

  • De Cian

"Review of parallel tracks for the project and suggested approach for developing response functions, with example using DICE

  • Bill Nordhaus

Uncertainty Analysis in IAM's - Approach for Development of PDF's

  • Ken Gillingham

MUP - Expert Elicitation of Long Run Economic Growth 

  • Peter Christensen

"Suggest approach for developing response function with example using the DICE model"

  • Bill Nordhaus

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

 

Session #4: Workshop on Informing Risk Management Decisions in the Face of Deeply Uncertain Sea-Level Rise Projections

  • Co-organized by Klaus Keller and Rob Lempert

 Welcome, introduction, and overview of decision-problems & analytical challenges

  • Klaus Keller

Threshold behavior in ice sheets - Physical origins of deep uncertainty

  • Tad Pfeffer

Characterizing the probability of tail area events in sea-level rise

  • Nathan Urban

Using the geological past to inform sea-level rise projections 

  • Robert Kopp

"Informing sea-level rise adaptation decisions under deep uncertainty"

  • David Johnson

 Interplay between adaptation capacity, mitigation, & geoengineering

  • Robert Lempert

Representation of Geoengineering in IAM's

  • Detlef van Vuuren

Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Session #4 continued:

Representation of Different Ethical Frameworks in IAM's

  • David Anthoff

Beyond Cost Benefit Analysis

  • Granger Morgan

Coupled epistemic ethical issues in analyzing sea-level rise risk management strategies

  • Nancy Tuana

Session #5: Scenarios for Climate Research and Assessment

  • Organizing Committee: Jae Edmonds, Elmar Kriegler, Jerry Meehl, Richard Moss, and John Weyant

Overview of Workshop on Scenarios for Integrated IAM-ESM-IAV Research

  • Richard Moss

Policy Drivers and Information Needs

  • Jonathan Pershing

CMIP5 outcomes & CMIP6 requirements

  • Jerry Meehl

IAM SSP & SSP-RCP replications

  • Keywan Riahi

Land use harmonization for CMIP5 and priorities for CMIP6

  • George Hurtt

Initial SSP Land Use Results- Implications for Near-Term IAM Development

  • Stephanie Waldhoff

Experience with Land Use / Land Cover Exchange in CMIP5

  • Peter Lawrence

Including Albedo Affects in IAM Scenarios

  • Kate Calvin

Papers & Readings for Session #5:

A Strategy for Climate Change Stabilization Experiments

The representative concentration pathways - an overview

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research & assessment

  • Richard Moss

 

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Thursday, August 1, 2013

Session #5: Scenarios for Climate Research and Assessment

  • Organizing Committee: Jae Edmonds, Elmar Kriegler, Jerry Meehl, Richard Moss, and John Weyant

LaMarque: Short-lived climate forcers CMIP5 and CMIP6|

  • Jean Francois LaMarque

Energy systems and Emissions in SSP/ SSP-RCP replications

  • Detlef VanVuuren

Uncertainty in global and regional emissions from the energy systems|

  • Granger Morgan

"Policy perspectives and questions for IAM analysis"-  Overshoot Scenarios

  • Elmar Kriegler

Mitigating anthropogenic climate change and the future of carbon cycle in overshoot worlds

  • Nebojsa Nakicenovic

Analysis and Risk Management of Overshoot Futures

  • Kris Ebi

Agency Needs for Scenario Products: DoD Coastal Installation Assessment

  • John Hall

"Downscaling and applying LCUS: EPA ICLUS"- Land Use Scenarios for the U.S.: Interpreting Global Storylines for National-Scale Assessments

  • Britta Bierwagen

Water resources planning: US Army Corps of Engineers

  • Jeff Arnold

"USFS Resources Planning Act Assessment"- 2010 RPA Assessment: Past, present, and future of America’s forests and rangelands

  • LindaLangner

Matching Climate, Socioeconomic, and Environmental Scenarios in Applications

  • Brian O'Neill

Scenarios for Decison Support

  • Anand Patwardan

"Regional analysis using CORDEX and socioeconomic scenarios"- Use of Experimental Design in Climate Change Experiments: Examples from NARCCAP and NA-CORDEX|

  • Linda Mearns

"Pattern scaling for pairing climate and socio economic scenarios"- Pattern scaling for pairing climate and socio economic scenarios

  • Ron Stouffer

 "Improving user access to consistent scenarios: Earth Systems Grid" - How Can Communities Less Familiar with Climate Models be Better Served Data?

  • Karl Taylor