EMF 31: North American Natural Gas Markets in Transition

Completed

Investigators

Hillard Huntington

Abstract: 

This working group will extend its analysis on the important energy transition towards higher shale oil and natural gas resources, building upon findings from the previous EMF 26 study.

The new study allows the working group an opportunity to explore a range of different key issues, including but not limited to the revised cost estimates of the North American resource base that will include such evaluations as University of Texas Bureau of Economic Geology, Potential Gas Committee, National Petroleum Council and various government sources (US Geological Survey and US Energy Information Administration); New demand growth opportunities in the industrial and transportation sectors; and US exports in a globally competitive market based upon world natural gas models and revised cost estimates for the various international natural gas resource basins.

Possible scenarios might include:

• High or low resource and drilling productivity conditions within North America;
• Reduced technology costs for new important end uses for natural gas in the transportation or industrial sectors in the United States;
• Faster or slower economic growth or industrial relocation to North America;
• Lower global oil price conditions than evaluated in the previous study; and
• Major shifts in global competitive conditions caused by more or less growth in Chinese demand or supply.

We welcome comments about what additional topics should be covered in this effort and recommendations about groups that would be valuable participants. Please contact Hill Huntington with any suggestions.

Project Contact: 

Hillard Huntington

Downloads

EMF 31 Scenario Design

EMF 31 Model Results