Frontiers in Energy Systems Transition Modeling Workshops 2013
Event Details:
Location
Snowmass, CO
United States
Monday, July 22, 2013
Session #1: Modeling Renewable Energy Initiative
- Organized by Doug Arent, Patrick Sullivan, Leon Clarke, Gunnar Luderer, and John Weyant
Welcome & Introduction - John Weyant
Introduction to Modeling Renewable Energy Initiative (revised) - Doug Arent
Part 1: Global Wind Supply Curves - Patrick Sullivan
Integrating New Wind Potentials at NIES - Shinichiro Fujimori
Part 2: IAM Crosscut - Resource Scenarios
Presentation Supplement - Patrick Sullivan
IAM Perspective on Wind Resource Potentials - Nico Bauer
General discussion about next steps to improve resource potentials for IAM's - Bas van Ruijven (Moderator)
Storage & Flexibility Options for VRRE Integration? - Paul Denholm
The Economics of Variability & Implications for IAM's - Falko Ueckerdt
Results from IAM low/high integration scenarios (revised) - Robert Pietzcker
IAM Discussion on Wind Energy - Leon Clarke
"Bottom-up Discussant on IAM VRRE integration" - Paul Denholm
Discussion on possible future integration constraints
Discussion of cost metrics for (and parameterization of) integration constraints
Next steps for VRRE Integration Analysis - ADVANCE meeting in November - Leon Clarke (Moderator)
Tuesday, July 23, 2013
Session #1 continued:
Crosscut - Competition & Carbon - Nico Bauer
Technology Characterization Wilson: Technology Characterization - Tom Wilson
Technology Characterization - Top-Down, Bottom-Up Integration - Ian Sue Wing
Importane of Modeling Renewables - Wide-Angle Perspective - Asami Miketa
Group discussion: Priorities, Reactions, and Comments - John Weyant & Doug Arent (Moderators)
Next Steps for the Renewables Initiative: Special Issue? Time frame. Next study operating committee. - Doug Arent (Moderator)
Integrated Impacts Overview - John Weyant
Papers & Readings from Session #1:
Improved Offshore Wind Resource Assessment in Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios - Doug Arent
PNNL EST Global Wind 2013 - Yuyu Zhou, Patrick Lucklow, Steven J. Smith, and Leon Clarke
PNNL CSP Energy Policy Paper - Yabei Zhang, Steven J. Smith, G. Page Kyle, and Paul W. Stackhouse Jr.
Impacts of Considering Electric Sector Variability and Reliability in the MESSAGE model - Patrick Sullivan, Volker Krey, and Keywan Riahi
Variable Renewable Energy in modeling climate change mitigation scenarios - Falko Ueckerdt, Robert Brecha, Gunnar Luderer, Patrick Sullivan, Eva Schmid, Nico Bauer, and Diana Böttger
Climate Change - Nico Bauer
Wednesday, July 24, 2013
Session #2: Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment
- Organized by Gary Yohe, Rich Richels, Tony Janetos, Max Tavoni, and John Weyant
Integrated Impacts Overview - John Weyant
"What do Policy Makers want to know? How do we communicate it?" - Joe Aldy, Allen Fawcett, Juan-Carlos Ciscar, Saleem Huq, & T.C. Richmond (Panelists)
Climate Extremes Research (revised) - Ken Kunkel
Climate Change Research- Recent Findings & New Directions -Don Weubbles
What Policy Makers Want to Know - Allen Fawcett
CIRA - Estimating Avoided Impacts from GHG Mitigation - Allen Fawcett
Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts in Europe - Juan-Carlos Ciscar
Thursday, July 25, 2013
Session #2 continued:
Introduction - Gary Yohe (Moderator)
Valuing Market & Non-Market Impacts - Charles Kolstad
Role of Adaptation Wilbanks: Role of Adaptation - Tom Wilbanks
Discussion - Gary Yohe & David Anthoff (moderators)
Measuring Impacts - Robert Mendelsohn
Approaches to Modeling Impacts - Anthony Janetos
Approaches to Measuring Impacts - Karen Fisher-Vanden
Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways - Shinichiro Fujimori
Discussion - Niven Winchester & Kate Calvin (Moderators)
Modeling Catastrophes Rutherford: Modeling Catastrophes - Thomas Rutherford
Characterizing Impacts - Richard Richels
Real Impacts - Irene & Sandy Solecki: Real Impacts - Irene & Sandy - William Solecki
"Take Home Messages for Policy Makers" - T.C. Richmond, Juan-Carlos Ciscar, & Saleem Huq
Friday, July 26, 2013
Session #2 continued:
Introduction - Richard Richels (Moderator)
"The social cost of carbon" - Stephanie Waldhoff
"Can USG SCC's guide climate policy?" - Steven Rose
Pricing Carbon - Gary Yohe
"The Importance of Scenarios in Climate Change Impacts Analyses" - Richard Moss
"A political economy" - Joe Aldy (Panelist)
"A political economy" - David Victor (Panelist)
Thoughts on the Political Economy of Climate Change Policy - Jonathan Wiener
"A political economy" - Reilly, John (Panelist & discussion leader)
Climate Change Impacts - Connecting Science with IAM's - Ian Sue Wing
"Science Needs" - Kate Calvin (Panelist)
Needs from Science - John Reilly
"Science Needs" - Don Wuebbles & Ken Kunkel (Panelist & discussion leaders)
Integrated Assessment Modeling - Where do we want to be in five years? - Jae Edmonds
IAM - Detlef van Vuuren (Panelist)
MIT's Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) - John Reilly
MERGE Impacts - Steven Rose
IAM's Panel - Enrica De Cian
"Representative Consumers" - Juan-Carlos Ciscar (Panelist)
"Representative Consumers" - David Victor (Panelist)
"Representative Consumers" - Jonathan Pershing (Panelist)
Papers & Readings from Session #2:
Article related to morning panel sessio: |Determining Benefits and Costs for Future Generations
Are Cereals Globally in Trouble? - De Cian
Two papers submitted by Toshihiko Masui: "Global Water Scarcity Assessment" Part 1 & Part 2 - Shinichiro Fujimori
Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries| (free registration required) -Robert Mendelsohn
NPCC-Climate-Risk-Information-2013-Report - William Solecki
- Wiener, Jonathan B & Richman, Barak D - "Mechanism Choice," chapter 11 in Farber, Daniel A & O'Connell, Anne Josepth, eds., Research Handbook on Public Choice and Public Law (Elgar, Edward 2010), pp. 363-396.
Monday, July 29, 2013
Week Two Overview - John Weyant
Session #3: Uncertainty Analysis in Integrated Assessment Models
- Conveners: Ken Gillingham and Bill Nordhaus
"Overview of the Project" - Bill Nordhaus
Uncertainty Analysis in IAM's - Major Steps over the Last Year - Ken Gillingham
Observations from MERGE uncertainty modeling round 2 - Steven Rose
MUP - Full Permutation Experiment with GCAM - Haewon McJeon
MUP Fund Contribution - David Anthoff
MUG-WITCH - De Cian
"Review of parallel tracks for the project and suggested approach for developing response functions, with example using DICE - Bill Nordhaus
Uncertainty Analysis in IAM's - Approach for Development of PDF's - Ken Gillingham
MUP - Expert Elicitation of Long Run Economic Growth - Peter Christensen
"Suggest approach for developing response function with example using the DICE model" - Bill Nordhaus
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
Session #4: Workshop on Informing Risk Management Decisions in the Face of Deeply Uncertain Sea-Level Rise Projections
- Co-organized by Klaus Keller and Rob Lempert
Welcome, introduction, and overview of decision-problems & analytical challenges - Klaus Keller
Threshold behavior in ice sheets - Physical origins of deep uncertainty - Tad Pfeffer
Characterizing the probability of tail area events in sea-level rise - Nathan Urban
Using the geological past to inform sea-level rise projections - Robert Kopp
"Informing sea-level rise adaptation decisions under deep uncertainty" - David Johnson
Interplay between adaptation capacity, mitigation, & geoengineering - Robert Lempert
Representation of Geoengineering in IAM's - Detlef van Vuuren
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
Session #4 continued:
Representation of Different Ethical Frameworks in IAM's - David Anthoff
Beyond Cost Benefit Analysis - Granger Morgan
Coupled epistemic ethical issues in analyzing sea-level rise risk management strategies - Nancy Tuana
Session #5: Scenarios for Climate Research and Assessment
- Organizing Committee: Jae Edmonds, Elmar Kriegler, Jerry Meehl, Richard Moss, and John Weyant
Overview of Workshop on Scenarios for Integrated IAM-ESM-IAV Research - Richard Moss
Policy Drivers and Information Needs - Jonathan Pershing
CMIP5 outcomes & CMIP6 requirements - Jerry Meehl
IAM SSP & SSP-RCP replications - Keywan Riahi
Land use harmonization for CMIP5 and priorities for CMIP6 - George Hurtt
Initial SSP Land Use Results- Implications for Near-Term IAM Development - Stephanie Waldhoff
Experience with Land Use / Land Cover Exchange in CMIP5 - Peter Lawrence
Including Albedo Affects in IAM Scenarios - Kate Calvin
Papers & Readings for Session #5:
A Strategy for Climate Change Stabilization Experiments
The representative concentration pathways - an overview
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research & assessment
- Richard Moss
Thursday, August 1, 2013
Session #5: Scenarios for Climate Research and Assessment
- Organizing Committee: Jae Edmonds, Elmar Kriegler, Jerry Meehl, Richard Moss, and John Weyant
LaMarque: Short-lived climate forcers CMIP5 and CMIP6| - Jean Francois LaMarque
Energy systems and Emissions in SSP/ SSP-RCP replications - Detlef VanVuuren
Uncertainty in global and regional emissions from the energy systems| - Granger Morgan
"Policy perspectives and questions for IAM analysis"- Overshoot Scenarios - Elmar Kriegler
Mitigating anthropogenic climate change and the future of carbon cycle in overshoot worlds - Nebojsa Nakicenovic
Analysis and Risk Management of Overshoot Futures - Kris Ebi
Agency Needs for Scenario Products: DoD Coastal Installation Assessment - John Hall
"Downscaling and applying LCUS: EPA ICLUS"- Land Use Scenarios for the U.S.: Interpreting Global Storylines for National-Scale Assessments - Britta Bierwagen
Water resources planning: US Army Corps of Engineers - Jeff Arnold
"USFS Resources Planning Act Assessment"- 2010 RPA Assessment: Past, present, and future of America’s forests and rangelands - Linda Langner
Matching Climate, Socioeconomic, and Environmental Scenarios in Applications - Brian O'Neill
Scenarios for Decision Support - Anand Patwardan
"Regional analysis using CORDEX and socioeconomic scenarios"- Use of Experimental Design in Climate Change Experiments: Examples from NARCCAP and NA-CORDEX| - Linda Mearns
"Pattern scaling for pairing climate and socio economic scenarios"- Pattern scaling for pairing climate and socio economic scenarios - Ron Stouffer
"Improving user access to consistent scenarios: Earth Systems Grid" - How Can Communities Less Familiar with Climate Models be Better Served Data? - Karl Taylor