Frontiers in Multi-Sector Dynamics Modeling Workshops 2015

Monday, July 27, 2015

Modeling Under Uncertainty Project (MUP) Update

Chair: Bill Nordhaus, Kenneth Gillingham, Yale University

Introduction

Part I.  Presentation of the results of the MUP project to date

• Bill Nordhaus and Kenneth Gillingham, Yale University

Overview, Calibration, PDFs

• Kenneth Gillingham, Yale University

Survey of productivity growth

• Peter Christensen, Yale University

Presentation of major results

• Bill Nordhaus, Yale University

Part II.  Modeler’s Presentations

• FUND, David Anthoff, UC Berkeley
• WITCH, Valentina Bosetti, Bocconi University, Italy
• IGSM, John Reilly, MIT
• GCAM, Leon Clarke, JGCRI/PNNL

Part III.  Continuation of Discussion by outside discussants

• Nebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASA
• Max Tavoni, FEEM, Italy
• Klaus Keller, Penn State University

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Integrated Impacts/Scenarios Session

(Steering Committee: Kate Calvin, Richard Moss, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Mike Mastrandrea, Chris Weaver, John Weyant)

Objectives:

• Advance the science of modeling earth system change impacts by focusing on key challenges in different sectors. The goal is not a comprehensive review of modeling impacts, but rather a deep dive in a few specific areas.
• Facilitate interactions and understanding across research communities.
• Review and assess experience with current state of the art approaches to integrated scenario development, impacts assessment, and uncertainty analysis.
• Develop recommendations for future integrative analysis by individual modeling teams and the community as a whole. Both scientific understanding and policy (including information on research priorities) needs for scientific information will be considered.

Challenges in modeling impacts:

• LAND: the effect of earth system change extremes on agriculture
• ENERGY: the effect earth system change on electricity supply
• WATER: the effect of regulation on the ability to adapt to earth system change

Welcome and goals for the session

• John Weyant and Kate Calvin, JGCRI/PNNL

Part 1: Overarching issues with respect to impacts

Chair: John Weyant, Stanford University

 Future directions for the global impacts assessments (PICC WG2)

• Mike Mastrandrea, Near Zero/ Carnegie Institute for Science

Future directions for USA Impacts Assessments (NCA)

• Glynis Lough, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Future directions for European Impacts Assessment (PESETA)

• Juan Carlos Ciscar, European Commission, Spain

Drivers and societal conditions: SSPs and CMIP6

• Detlef van Vuuren, PBL, Netherlands

Interactions across impact sectors

• Keywan Riahi, IIASA, Austria

Interactions between impacts, adaptations and mitigation

• Karen Fisher-Vanden, Penn State University

Part 2: Challenges in modeling agriculture impacts, focusing on earth system change extremes

Chair:  Mike Mastrandrea, Near Zero/ Carnegie Institute for Science

Overview of agricultural impacts, including any previous work

• Tom Hertel, Purdue University

Understanding the science: What do we know from field/lab studies?  What don’t we know?

• Heather McCarthy, University of Oklahoma

Representing earth system & environmental conditions: How well are we equipped to model earth system change extremes?  How well can we improve? What are data/resolution needs?

•  Travis O’Brien, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab

Representing the physical processes: How well are we equipped to model the effect of earth system extremes on crop yields?  How can we improve?

• Alex Ruane, NASA GISS  (remote)

Representing interactions in IA models: What is needed to include this in an IA model? How will these effects interact with energy/water/land/economy? Are other effects co-indicated?

• Kate Calvin, JGCRI/PNNL

 Discussants:

• Ron Sands, USDA Economic Research Service
• Shinichiro Fujimori, NIES, Japan
• Andrew Jones, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

USGCRP Perspective

• Gary Geernaert, U.S. Department of Energy

Part 3: Challenges in modeling impacts on the water cycle, focusing on adaptation

Chair: Leon Clarke, JGCRI/PNNL

Overview of water cycle impacts, including any previous work 

• David Yates, NCAR

Understanding the science: What adaptation options are available? What are policy limits to adaptation?

• Sheila Olmstead, University of Texas at Austin

Representing earth system & environmental conditions: How well are we equipped to model precipitation, stream flow, and stream temperature? How can we improve? What are data/resolution needs?

• David Yates, NCAR

Representing the physical processes: How well are we equipped to water availability? How can we improve? 

• Richard Lammers, University of New Hampshire

Representing interactions in IA models:  What is needed to include this in an IA model?  How will these effects interact with energy/water/land/economy?  Are other effects co-indicated

• John Reilly, MIT

Discussants:

• Jeff Arnold, University of Washington
• Jim McFarland, U.S. EPA
• Jae Edmonds, JGCRI/PNNL

Part 4: Challenges in modeling energy system impacts, focusing on electricity supply

Chair: Kate Calvin, JGCRI/PNNL

Overview of energy impacts, including any previous work

• Guido Franco, California Energy Commission

 Understanding the science and representing earth system & environmental conditions: What are the technical effects of earth system change on electricity supply? How well are we equipped to model wind and solar? What are data/resolution needs?

• Lawrence Buja, NCAR

Representing the physical processes: How well are we equipped to model earth system effects on electricity supply?  How can we improve?

• Ian Kraucunas, JGCRI/PNNL

Representing interactions in IA models: What is needed to include this in an IA model?  How will these effects interact with energy/water/land/economy? Are other effects co-indicated?

• Leon Clarke, JGCRI/PNNL

Discussants:

• Bob Vallario, U.S. Department of Energy
• Elmar Kriegler, PIK, Germany
• Ian Sue Wing, Boston University

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Part 5:  Cross-Sectorial Technical Issues

Chair: Kate Calvin, JGCRI/PNNL

Panel of IA modelers to discuss linkages across sectors (e.g., energy, water, land, infrastructure, sea level rise, health):

• Leon Clarke, JGCRI, PNNL
• Delavane Diaz, Stanford University
• Kristi Ebi, University of Washington
• Tom Hertel, Purdue University
• John Reilly, MIT

Uncertainty Frameworks

•  Massimo Tavoni, FEEM

Providing probabilistic earth system information (or not)

• Valentina Bosetti, Bocconi University, Italy

Special talk on energy efficiency and carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S.

• Jim Sweeney, Stanford University

Friday, July 31, 2015

Part 6: Future directions, including recommendations for future integrative analysis by individual modeling teams and the IAM community as a whole

Chair: Richard Moss, JGCRI/PNNL

Research Needs and Opportunities Panel: What did we learn this week? What areas are interesting for future research?

• Ted Cope, NGA
• Bryan Mignone or Haroon Kheshgi, ExxonMobil
• Jim McFarland, U.S. EPA
• Jonathan Pershing, U.S. DOE
• Bob Vallario U.S. DOE
• Charles Covel, DHS

Modeling Panel: What did we learn this week?  What progress can be made on the issues discussed this week?

• Gerry Meehl, NCAR
• Tony Janetos, Boston University (remote)
• Others TBD