Frontiers in Multi-Sector Dynamics Modeling Workshops 2016

Monday, July 25, 2016

• Kate Calvin (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)
• Karen Fisher-Vanden (Pennsylvania State University)
• Richard Moss (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)
• John Weyant (Stanford University) 

Session 1: Introduction

Introduction

• Chair:  John Weyant (Stanford University)  Notetaker: Karen Fisher-Vanden

Introduction and Meeting Goals

• Kate Calvin (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

Drivers for Federal Investment to Integrate IA-IAV-ESM-ABM Capabilities

• Gary Geernaert (U.S. Department of Energy)

Scientific Drivers, Needs, and Trends in Integrated Human- Earth System Modeling...Enegy Water Land Nexus

• Bob Vallario (U.S. Department of Energy)

Capabilities and Gaps in Integrated Human-Earth System Modeling...Energy Water Land Nexus

• Dorothy Koch (U.S. Department of Energy)

Session 2: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

Chair: Kate Calvin (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory)  Notetaker: Leon Clarke

IAV Science Questions that Require Coupling and/or Inputs from IAM/ESM

• John Weyant (Stanford University)

Linking IAV, IAM and ESM: Results of a Interagency Workshop

• Richard Moss  (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) & Karen Fisher-Vanden (PSU)

Session 3: Update from Existing Projects

Chair: Richard Moss (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory) Notetaker: Ian Sue Wing

Comparing Methods and Improving the Emperical Foundations of Agricultural Impacts—an Inter-method Comparison Exercise

• Karen Fisher-Vanden (PSU), Juan Carlos Ciscar (European Commission, The Institute for Prospective Technological Studies)

Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Models Methods for Agriculture and Land 

• Alex Ruane (National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NASA)

News From ISIMIP

• Franziska Piontek (PIK)

Session 4: Coupling for IAV

Chair: Steve Rose (EPRI)  Notetaker: Richard Moss

Coupling for IAV: Energy

• Mort Webster (Pennsylvania State University)

Coupling for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability- Water

• Richard Lammers (University of New Hampshire)

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Community Efforts for Agriculture and Food Security

• Alex Ruane (NASA)

Session 5: Cross-Sectoral Challenges

Chair: Karen Fisher-Vanden (PSU) Notetaker: Mohamad Hejazi

Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities in IAM-ESM-IAV... Temporal Analysis of Energy-Water-Land System

• Ian Kraucunas (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, PNNL)

Integrating IAV Concepts into IAMs

• Ian Sue Wing (Boston University)

IAM As a Coordinating Mechanism to Integrate Impacts Across Sectors and Regions

• Kate Calvin (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Session 1: Integrated Assessment Models

Chair: Keywan Riahi (IIASA) Notetaker: John Weyant

Scientific Drivers, Needs, and Trends: An EU Perspective

• Miles Perry for Tom van Ierland (European Commission)

The Evolving Integrated Assessment Modeling Community Research Agenda 

• Leon Clarke (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

IAM Science Questions that Require Coupling and/or Inputs from IAV/ESM

• Detlef van Vuuren (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL)

Session 2:  Update from Existing Projects

Chair: Jae Edmonds (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory)  Notetaker: Mort Webster

Opportunities for Integration of Remote Sensing, Integrated Assessment, and Adaptation Science

• Ghassem Asrar (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

The World in 2050: A Transformative Change Agenda

• Nebojsa Nakicenovic (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA)

Update from CD-Links

• Valentina Bosetti (Bocconi University)

Session 3: Coupling for IAM

Chair: Leon Clarke (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory) Notetaker: Ian Kraucunas

Coupling energy-models for better representation of cross-sectoral dynamics

• Keywan Riahi (IIASA)

Modeling Water in IAMS: WHere are We and What can ESMs and IAVs Offer?

• Mohamad Hejazi (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

Coupling for IAM: Land

• Erwan Monier for John Reilly (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Session 4: Cross-Sectoral Model Coupling Challenges

Chair: Rob Nicholas (PSU) Notetaker: Andy Jones

Resolution challenges in IPETS/CLM or Tools for Human-Earth System Interaction & Scaling (Thesis)

• Brian O’Neill (National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR)

IAM/IAV/ESM Linkage in AIM Project-Focusing Spatial Resolution Issues

• Kiyoshi Takahashi (National Institue for Environmental Studies, NIES)

Resolution Challenges in CIRA

• Jim McFarland (U.S. EPA)

Session 5: Perspectives on Uncertainty

Chair: Erwan Monier (MIT) Notetaker: Jim McFarland

Modeling Uncertainty in IAV

• Rob Lempert (RAND)

Uncertainty in IAMS

• Massimo Tavoni (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, FEEM)

Quantifying Uncertainties Using Earth System Models to Inform Decision Making

• Klaus Keller (Pennsylvania State University)

   

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Session 1:  Earth Systems Models

Chair: Ghassem Asrar (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory) Notetaker: Rob Nicholas

ESM Science Questions that Require Coupling and/or Inputs from IAM/IAV

• Jean-Francois Lamarque (National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR)

ScenarioMIP: The Up and Coming CMIP6 Scenarios

• Claudia Tebaldi (National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR)

Science, Scenarios & Co-development Accelerated Model for Energy (ACME) and GCAM (& IAV ?)

• Dorothy Koch (U.S. Department of Energy)

Session 2: Update from Existing Projects

Chair: Ghassem Asrar (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory) Notetaker: Klaus Keller

Impact Relevance and Usability of High Resolution Modeling and Datasets

• Andy Jones (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

Session 3: Coupling for ESM

Chair: Andy Jones (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory) Notetaker: Claudia Tebaldi

Coupling for ESM: The IGSM

• Erwan Monier (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Coupling for ESM: CESM & iPETS

• Peter Lawrence (National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR)

Coupling for ESM: The Integrated Easrt System Model (iESM)

• Bill Collins (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

Coupling of IMAGE and CGM/ESMs

• Detlef van Vuuren (PBL)

Session 4: Approaches for Weather Model Information

Chair: Klaus Keller (PSU) Notetaker: Erwan Monier

Characterization of Extremes (remote presentation)

• Noah Diffenbaugh (Stanford University)

High Resolution Weather Modeling

• Ruby Leung (Joint Global Change Research Institute/ Pacfic Northwest National Laboratory)

Pattern Scaling and Weather Statistics

• Claudia Tebaldi (NCAR)

Integration of Weather Information for Impacts, Adaptation, and Decision Support

• Rob Nicholas (Pennsylvania State University)

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Session 1:  Breakout Sessions on Use Cases from the IA-IAV-ESM Workshop May 24-26

Overview of use Cases. Diagrams, Capabilities Needed Richard Moss and Karen Fisher-Vanden

Breakout Session Presentations

Group 1   Electric power generation and distribution, given changing demand, prices, supply technologies, weather, land use and other relevant factors. 

• Facilitator:    Leon Clarke
• Notetaker:    John Weyant

Group 2  Water resources management, given changes in demand, population, land use, institutions, and operating rules, and other factors.                 

• Facilitator:    Steve Frolking
• Notetaker:    Karen Fisher-Vanden            

Group 3   Productivity of agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems to meet changing demand of food, fiber, and other ecosystem goods and services. 

• Facilitator:    Brian O'Neill
• Notetaker:    Kate Calvin

Session 2:  Coupling IAV Models, IAMs and ESMs

Chair: Ian Kraucunas 

Panel Discussion on Coupling

• Juan Carlos Ciscar (European Commission)
• Peter Lawrence (NCAR)
• Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia University)
• Ian Sue Wing (Boston University)

Friday, July 29, 2016

Conclusions/ Wrap up/ Next Steps

Writing Session with Co-chairs