Frontiers in Multi-Sector Dynamics Modeling Workshops 2014

Monday, July 28, 2014

SESSION 2:  ON MODELING UNCERTAINTY PROJECT (MUP)

Overview of the Project and the Parallel Track Approach

• Bill Nordhaus and Ken Gillingham, Yale University

Overview of Results Using the Lattice Diagrams

• Bill Nordhaus and Paul Sztorc, Yale University

Surface Response Functions and Discussion

• Modeler's Presentations by:  MERGE, FUND, GCAM, IGSM, WITCH, DICE
• Bill Nordhaus, Yale University and Paul Sztorc, Yale University

General Discussion of Track I Methods and Results

• Jae Edmonds 

Overview of Development

• Ken Gillingham, Yale University

Expert Elicitation of Total Factor Productivity

• Peter Christensen, Yale University and Elmar Kriegler, Potsdam Inst. 

Temperature sensitivity coefficient 

• Ken Gillingham, Yale University and Klaus Keller, Penn State University

Stochastic Projections of Population

• Bill Nordhaus, Yale University and John Reilly, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Illustrative Results Combining the Two Tracks

• Bill Nordhaus and Paul Sztorc, Yale University 

General Discussion

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

SESSION 3:  WORKSHOP ON DECISION ANALYSIS FOR RISK MANAGEMENT

Welcome, Introduction, and Overview of the Decision-Problems and Analytical Challenges

• Klaus Keller, Penn State University

Coupled Epistemic Ethic Questions in Risk Management

• Nancy Tuana, Penn State University

Deep Uncertainty and Decision Analysis

• Detlof von Winterfeldt, USC

How do Decision makers Decide?

• David Budescu, Fordham University

Utilitarianism, Prioritarianism, and Change

• Matthew Adler, Duke Law School

Strengths and Weaknesses of Expected Utility Maximization

• Bill Nordhaus, Yale University

Decision making under Deep Uncertainty and Disagreement

• Geoffrey Heal, Columbia University

Robust Decision making, Value Diversity, Trade-off Analyses

• Rob Lempert, Rand Corporation

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

SESSION 4: NEEDS FOR SCENARIOS: SCIENCE, ASSESSMENTS AND DECISION MAKING

Overview

• Richard Moss, JGCRI/PNNL, John Weyant, and Steering Committee

Integrating Socioeconomic, and Environmental Scenarios – Status Update and Key Questions

• Brian O’Neill, UCAR and Steering Committee

Connecting Scenarios and Impacts Research: Needs and Capabilities -- Report from Impacts Session Week 1

• Kate Calvin, JGCRI/PNNL

Overview: Review of the Challenges and Session Objectives

• ​Klaus Keller, Penn State University

Need for and Use of Probabilistic Weather Projections

• Suraje Dessai, University of Leeds, and Robert Lempert, Rand Corporation

Modeling Approaches for Providing Probabilistic Information on Potential Future

• Jerry Meehl, NCAR 

An Overview of Approaches to Probabilistic Projections of Future Changes

• Claudia Tebaldi, NCAR

Probabilistic Futures for Emissions and Forcing

• Keywan Riahi, IIASA and Detlef van Vuuren, PBL

Expert Elicitation and Parametric Analysis Using Boundary Conditions

• Detlof von Winterfeldt, USC

Discussion: Probabilistic Scenarios

• Ben Preston, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Thursday, July 31, 2014

Introduction

• Jae Edmonds, JGCRI/PNNL (w/ input from Patwardhan, Riahi)

SSPs: Status and Analysis of Early Results

• Keywan Riahi, IIASA

Water and Environmental Resources Adaptation Planning:  Information Needs

• Levi Brekke, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Integrating Extreme Events into Risk Management

• Tom Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Introduction

• Anand Patwardhan, University of Maryland

Weather, Conflict, Health, and Economy Interactions 

• Elisabeth Gilmore, University of Maryland

The Joint Research Center PESETA II (Projection of Economic impacts of change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis)

• Juan-Carlos Ciscar, IPTS/EC

Global Change and Food Security Project

• Joost Vervoort, Oxford University

Nested downscaled scenarios for resource assessment

• Ben Sleeter, U.S. Geological Survey

Coordinating national/subnational scale scenarios in the US

• Fred Lipschultz – USGCRP/NASA

Friday, August 1, 2014

General Discussion

• Brian O’Neill, UCAR 

Introduction

• Detlef van Vuuren, PBL

Possible questions that ScenarioMIP (and other related MIPs) could address, and implications for scenarios

• Brian O’Neill, UCAR

Experimental design considerations: The role of pattern scaling, statistical sampling of GCMs, and the significance of differences between scenarios

• Claudia Tebaldi, NCAR

Plans for Aerosols and Chemistry MIP (AerChemMIP) and relevance to ScenarioMIP

• Jean-Francois Lamarque, NCAR 

Plans for Land Use MIP (LUMIP) and relevance to ScenarioMIP

• Kate Calvin, PNNL

Proposal for Land Use Model Inter-comparison project (LUMIP) 

• George Hurtt, University of Maryland

Status of IAM scenarios based on SSPs, and relevance to possible ScenarioMIP design

• Detlef van Vuuren, PBL

Group Discussion

• Kate Calvin, PNNL

Group Discussion

• Ian Noble, Adaptation Knowledge Exchange

Summary 

John Weyant, Stanford University