Oil Disruption Risk Workshop

EMF will update its oil disruption risk evaluation that was last done in 2005. The project will develop a risk assessment framework and use expert opinion to evaluate the likelihood of at least one foreign oil disruption over the next ten years. The risk assessment will be conducted through a series of workshops attended by leading geopolitical, military and oil-market experts who will provide their expertise on the probability of different events occurring, and their corresponding link to major disruptions in key oil market regions. Special attention will be made to differentiate disruptions by their magnitude, by their likelihood of occurrence, and by their duration. A critical step will be a precise definition of what constitutes an oil market disruption that is sufficiently large to change SPR decisions.