Event Details:
Availability: By invitation only
Location: Snowmass, Colorado
Investigator: John Weyant
Event Coordinator: Susan Sweeney
This meeting is organized by the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) at Stanford University for a consortium of sponsors including the U.S. Department of Energy, the National Institute of Environmental Studies of Japan, the Electric Power Research Institute, and Exxon Mobil Corporation.
Wednesday, July 27
Welcoming Remarks
- John Weyant, Stanford University
The Ongoing IAMC and IPCC Socio-Economic Scenarios Processes
- Jae Edmonds, PNNL
NIES Socio-Economic Scenarios
- Shinichiro Fujimori, NIES
Energy Land and Water in the Context of a Changing Climate
Welcome & Introduction, John Weyant, Stanford University
Integrated Assessment Modeling Panelists: Jae Edmonds (PNNL); Elmar Kriegler (PIK); Detlef van Vuuren (PBL); Shinichiro Fujimori (NIES); Kathy Hibbard (PNNL)
Understanding the Energy, Land, Water Nexus
Insights from the climate modeling community with special attention to High Resolution Modeling
- Noah Diffenbaugh, Stanford University
Potential bio-energy futures envisioned by the Integrated Assessment Modeling community
- Steve Rose, EPRI
Water scarcity in the context of growing food demands and climate change
- Claudia Ringler IFPRI
- Jae Edmonds, PNNL
Integrated Assessment Panel & Discussion Key Challenges:
- Elmar Kriegler, PIK
Thursday, July 28
EXPLORING COMPONENTS OF THE NEXUS
Future Climate: Implications for the Nexus
The Food-Fuel-Environment Tri-lemma
**Tom Hertel, Purdue University**
Interactions between climate and ecosystems
- David Kicklighter, Woods Hole
Implications of climate change for agriculture and commodity markets
**David Lobell, Stanford University **
Climate impacts on future crop production
- Jerry Nelson, IFPRI
Global Water Availability and Use
The role of water constraints in determining the global land use impacts of biofuel expansion
**Tom Hertel, Purdue University**
Embodied water in trade: Whither Virtual Water?
**Richard Tol, ESRI**
Hydrological modeling at the global scale: Limitations and Opportunities
- Ximing Cai, University of Illinois
Adjourn and informal discussion
Friday, July 29
Global Water Availability and Use (Continues)
Incorporating Water Resources Impacts into Integrated Assessment Models
**Ken Strzepek, MIT and University of Colorado**
Intensification, land transition and Uncertainty
Yield trajectories, yield responses, water constraints
- Patricio Grassini, University of Nebraska |Grassini
Understanding land transitions
**George Hurtt, University of Maryland**
Acknowledging local realities when evaluating regional water resources: innovation, challenges & uncertainties
- Pat Reed: Pennsylvania State University
Integrated Assessment Panel & Discussion (2-3 panelists, 10 minutes each, then group discussion)
National Climate Assessment specific effort on energy-water-land and its first meeting
**Bob Vallario, U.S. Department of Energy**
**Tony Janetos, JGCRI/PNNL**
**Kathy Hibbard**
Adjourn and informal discussion
Monday, Aug. 1
UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS
Bill Nordhaus and John Weyant describe the project history and tentative plans.
Initial thoughts on the project:
Questions and uncertainties to be addressed:
- Design of protocol
- Metrics for output
- Maximizing participation
Update on the National Climate Assessment
- Kathy Jacobs, U.S. Office of Science Technology Policy
Recapitulation of key points from morning session research reports (I): Modelers are invited to make presentations of their current or earlier work on uncertainty analysis. Key questions to examine are:
- Which uncertainties to model
- Techniques for identifying and estimating key uncertainties
- Techniques for estimating impacts of uncertainties
- Metrics for measuring outputs
- Key variables for outputs
- Tools and approaches from other fields
- Earlier results of uncertainty modeling
- Protocol design for model comparison
Presenters:
- Doug Arent
- Leon Clark
- Kristie Ebi
- Klaus Keller**
- Elmar Kriegler
- David Montgomery
- Nebojsa Nakicenovic
- William Nordhaus
- Richard Tol
- Detlef van Vuuren
- Stephanie Waldhoff
- Mort Webster
- John Weyant
- Tom Wilbanks
- William Nordhaus
- Steve Rose
Tuesday, Aug. 2
Review of key questions that arose in afternoon session
Research reports (II): Continuation of research reports along the lines of Monday afternoon
Next steps:
(1) Are there important research questions to be addressed? Is this important enough to be worth a major collaborative research program?
(2) If so, what are the key questions? Make a specific list of questions and uncertainties to be addressed.
(3) Protocol development (need working group to develop this)
(4) Any major methodological questions that need to be addressed (tools for determining uncertainty, thin v. thick tails, model v. parameter uncertainty, and others)
(5) Model inclusion: how to get the widest model participation (open access), while ensuring that have adequate comparability
(6) Future meetings
Adjourn and Informal Discussion
Wednesday, Aug. 3
Institutions, Economic and Climate Policy in a Mosaic World (Day 1)
This session will consider the role of national and regional institutions in creating frameworks for policy choices and decisions. In particular, they affect the choice, design and implementation of real world (non-optimum) policies. But they are also likely to affect the pace and direction of economic development with implications for BAU economic growth and emissions trajectories. Accounting for the impacts of institutions may, therefore, affect the development and assessment of baselines and other scenarios.
Opening Comments--John P. Weyant
The Mosaic World: Introduction and Overview
- Brian Flannery, Exxon Mobil
An Overview of NIE
- Lee Alston, University of Colorado
Institutions and economic growth: The rise, spread, and limits of sustained economic growth
- John Wallis, University of Maryland/NBER
The new institutionalism: implications for climate policy analysis
- Lee Lane, Hudson Institute
Moderated Open discussion (Flannery)
The shaping of U.S. energy and climate policy
- Barry Weingast, Stanford University
How do models represent policies that come out of real governments? What are implications for international action?
Panel: Leon Clarke, Elmar Kreigler, David Montgomery
Open discussion--Incorporating institutional thinking into climate emissions and socio-economic scenarios
The role of scenarios in driving climate futures
- Jae Edmonds, PNNL
What information should socio-economic scenarios provide?
- John Weyant, Stanford University
Can NIE research narrow the range of scenarios we are likely to see or identify inconsistent assumptions describing scenarios?
- John Wallis, University of Maryland/NBER
Key Economic Sectors and Services
- Richard Tol, ESRI
Thursday, Aug. 4
Institutions, Economic and Climate Policy (Day 2)The Mosaic World: Introduction to Day 2
Introduction and Overview
- David Montgomery, NERA |Montgomery8-4
Studies of economic development done in the NIE framework can increase understanding of how offset and adaptation programs may develop
Governance, and the feasibility of offset programs
- Lee Alston, University of Colorado
Adaptation, aid & violence in Africa
- Robert Bates, Harvard University
Thursday, Aug. 4
Institutions, Economic and Climate Policy (Day 2)The Mosaic World: Introduction to Day 2
Introduction and Overview
- David Montgomery, NERA
Studies of economic development done in the NIE framework can increase understanding of how offset and adaptation programs may develop
Governance, and the feasibility of offset programs
- Lee Alston, University of Colorado
Adaptation, aid & violence in Africa
- Robert Bates, Harvard University
Open discussion
Panel discussion on how to bring NIE perspectives into scenario development and modeling of costs and benefits of climate policies
Implications for scenarios use in IPCC
- Chris Field, Carnegie Institution of Washington
- Elmar Kriegler, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Incorporating regional differences in IA Models
**John Weyant, Stanford University**
Engaging the NIE community in climate research and assessment
**Barry Weingast, Stanford University**
Possible topics for next year
**Brian Flannery, David Montgomery, and John Weyant**
Update on NREL Wind in IAMs Project
- Doug Arent, JISEA/NREL
Ideas for Next Year’s Workshop
Adjourn and informal discussion