Snowmass Workshop - 2012

Availability: By invitation only

Location: Top of the Village, Snowmass, Colorado

Investigator: John Weyant

Event Coordinator: Susan Sweeney

This meeting is organized by the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) at Stanford University for a consortium of sponsors including the U.S. Department of Energy, the National Institute of Environmental Studies of Japan, the Electric Power Research Institute, and Exxon Mobil Corporation.

*Please note that some participants only gave verbal presentations, without powerpoint.

Monday, July 23

Welcome & Introduction 

• John Weyant, Stanford University

Overview of Spatial Land Use in Integrated Assessment Models

• Brian O'Neill, NCAR - REV-GLOBIOM Model 

• Petr Havlik, IIASA - GCAM-Model  
• Kate Calvin, PNNL - Agent Based Modeling of Lane Use Change
• Dan Brown, University of Michigan - Generalizing Agent Based Models of Land Use Change  
• Steve Manson, University of Minnesota - Deforestation Econometric Approaches  
• Alex Pfaff, Duke University - Incorporating land markets in agent-based models  
• Dawn Parker, University of Waterloo - Modeling land and water use in agriculture at the river basin level  
• Tom Hertel, Purdue University - Land use/land cover typologies & nested modeling approaches for use in IA modeling  
• Peter Verburg, Vrije University

Tuesday, July 24

Biophysical effects of land use change on climate  

• Peter Lawrence, NCAR

Land use, carbon and water in the integrated Earth System Model (iESM)  

• Bill Collins, U.C. Berkeley

Land use, biogeochemistry, and climate  

• Atul Jain, University of Illinois, Champaign-Urbana

Data availability and constraints for modeling land & water use  

• Tom Hertel, Purdue University

Land Data Differences panel  

• Johan Feddema, University of Kansas

Land Use & Biophysical Carbon Cycling panel  

• Derek Robinson, University of Waterloo

Final discussion on spatial land use in IAM's  

• Brian O'Neill, NCAR

Wednesday, July 25

Overview on Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP's)

• Brian O'Neill, NCAR

IAM Overview

• Detlef van Vuuren, PBL

Scenarios from ReMIND-MagPIE group

• Elmar Kriegler, PIK-Potsdam

GCAM scenarios based on SSP Elements

• Jae Edmonds, PNNL

Scenarios from AIM Group

• Shinichiro Fujimori, NIES

Scenario work from IMAGE

• Detlef van Vuuren, PBL

Measuring the challenges to mitigation & adaptation

• Jae Edmonds, PNNL

Priority needs for IAV Researchers & Decision Makers

• Marc Levy, Columbia University

Income Distribution in Large Scale Models

• Bas van Ruijven, NCAR

Projecting Income Distribution

• Erik Kemp-Benedict, Stockholm Environment Institute

Improved Method for Projecting Spatial Population

• Bryan Jones, NCAR

Thursday, July 26

Radiative Forcing Overview  

• Phil Rasch, PNNL

Introduction to IAM's  

• John Weyant, Stanford University

IAM forcing modeling overview  

• Steven Rose, EPRI|

What do we know about Emissions?  

• Steven J. Smith, PNNL

Key uncertainties in future non-Kyoto emissions (inventories, observations, processes)  

• Steven J. Smith, PNNL

Key uncertainties in historic non-Kyoto emissions  

• Zig Klimont, IIASA

Air pollution policy formation  

• Kevin Culligan, U.S. EPA

Friday, July 27

• Aerosol forcings and non-linear climate response  |Mark Flanner, University of Michigan 

• Radiative Aerosol Indirect Effects overview  |Phil Rasch, PNNL Phil Rasch, PNNL 

•  Ozone and Chemistry  |Jean-Francois Lamarque, NCAR 

• Co-Benefits of Global Greenhouse Mitigation  |Jason West, University of North Carolina 

• Aerosol Particles: The Big Picture  |Bill Collins, U.C. Berkeley 

• IAM modelers: questions for the science community  |Discussion: IAM Modelers' Questions, Challenges, and Priorities 

Monday, July 30

• Introduction, Motivation, and Background on MUG  |Bill Nordhaus, Yale University 

• MUG Round 1 Scenarios in MERGE  |Geoff Blanford, EPRI 

• MUG results from Page09 Model  |Chris Hope, University of Cambridge 

• Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses in Integrated Assessments  |Klaus Keller, Penn State University 

• MUG-WITCH  |Massimo Tavoni, FEEM 

• Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis with FUND  |Richard Tol, University of Sussex 

• Uncertainty Analysis Panel: MUG Issues and Questions  |John Weyant, Stanford University 

• MUG-RICE model runs  |Bill Nordhaus, Yale University 

• MUG: A Sensitivity Experiment with GCAM  |Leon Clarke, PNNL 

• MUG-Phoenix  |Kathryn Daenzer, Penn State University 

• MUG MIT-IGSM  |John Reilly, MIT 

• Uncertainty Analysis Panel in IAM's: Next Steps  |Ken Gillingham, Yale University 

Tuesday, July 31

TEAM Overview

• Valentina Bosetti, FEEM and Erin Baker, UMass at Amherst |Bosetti Bosetti 

• Expert Elicitations: Introduction to Megajoule  |Max Henrion, Lumina Decision Systems 

• Meta Analysis of Elicitation Results  |Gregory Nemet, University of Wisconsin and Elena Verdolini, FEEM |Nemet Nemet 

• Harmonization and Aggregation  |Max Henrion, Lumina Decision Systems 

• Uncertainty Analysis and Expert Elicitation: Comments  |Detlof von Winterfeldt, USC 

WITCH Model:

• Valentina Bosetti, FEEM

Markal Model:

• Chip Friley, Brookhaven National Laboratory

GCAM Model:

• Haewon McJeon, PNNL and Leon Clarke, PNNL

Overview of Comparison Exercise

• Max Henrion, Lumina Decision Systems

Discussant

• John Weyant, Stanford University

Wednesday, August 1

• Overview of Decision Analysis Framework  |Erin Baker, UMass at Amherst and Valentina Bosetti, FEEM|

• Decision Analysis Framework from Umass Study  |Erin Baker, UMass at Amherst 

• Decision Analysis Framework from Harvard study  |Gabe Chan, Harvard University 

• Approximate Dynamic programming application to WITCH  |Gauthier de Maere, FEEM-CMCC 

• GCAM Application  |Haewon McJeon, PNNL 

Discussant:  Robert Lempert, Rand Corporation

Opening Comments on Institutions in Mosaic World

• John Weyant, Stanford University

Introduction: Scene set and Overview Past Sessions

• Brian Flannery, Retired

New Institutionalism:

• Implications for Climate & Climate Policy Analysis  |Lee Lane, Hudson Institute 

Opening Comments on Investment in major facilities and infrastructure

• Brian Flannery, Retired

Power Sector Investments and Linkages: OECD

• John Parsons, MIT

Power Sector Investments and Linkages:

• Developing World  |David Victor, U.C. San Diego 

Thursday, August 2

Opening Remarks

John Weyant, Stanford University

• Scene Set & Modeling Water in IAM's #1  |Ken Strzepek #1, MIT 

• Scene Set & Modeling Water in IAM's #2  |Ken Strzepek #2, MIT 

• Institutional Issues in Global Water Management: Case study of Africa  |Ruhiza Boroto, FAO 

• Institutional issues in North American water management: Can we model them?  |Paul Flack, University of Colorado 

GAP-Water

• Richard Tol, University of Sussex

• Water in GCAM  |Jae Edmonds, PNNL 

• New Institutional Economics perspective on adaptation (paper by Oliver Williamson)  |Lee Lane, Hudson Institute 

• Enablers and impediments to adaptation  |Rob Mendelsohn, Yale University

• Links in requirements for economic growth and adaptation  |David Montgomery, NERA 

Friday, August 3

Opening Remarks

• John Weyant, Stanford University

• Scene Set  |Brian Flannery, Retired

• Trade and climate change: existing issues and tensions  |Niven Winchester, MIT 

• Stabilizing GHC concentrations: implications for trade and competitiveness  |Brian Fisher, BAEconomics 

• Implications for IPCC Assessment and Scenarios

• ​Kristie Ebi, Stanford University

• Industry Perspective

• Haroon Kheshgi, ExxonMobil

• Rules or Markets and how to represent them

• John Weyant, Stanford University

Future Directions: Modeling real world, non-optimal policies

• Jae Edmonds, PNNL

• Overview of Modeling RETs in IAMs  |Doug Arent, JISEA/NREL 

• Resource Supply Curves & Initial IAM Results  |Leon Clarke, PNNL and  Patrick Sullivan, NREL

• Global Atlas for Solar & Wind Energy  |Carsten Hoyer-Klick, German Aerospace Center  and |David Renne, NREL 

• Renewable Electricity in Computable General Equilibrium Models |Niven Winchester, MIT   |Patrick Sullivan, NREL and  |Chip Friley, Brookhaven National Laboratory 

• High Renewable Energy Scenarios: Global Energy Assessment  |Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Vienna University of Technology  and |Nate Blair, NREL