Event Details:
Availability: By invitation only
Location: Snowmass, Colorado, USA
Investigator: John Weyant
Event Coordinator: Susan Sweeney
This meeting is organized by the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) at Stanford University for a consortium of sponsors including the U.S. Department of Energy, the National Institute of Environmental Studies of Japan, the Electric Power Research Institute, and Exxon Mobil Corporation.
Monday, July 22, 2013
Session #1: Modeling Renewable Energy Initiative
- Organized by Doug Arent, Patrick Sullivan, Leon Clarke, Gunnar Luderer, and John Weyant
Welcome & Introduction - John Weyant
Introduction to Modeling Renewable Energy Initiative (revised) - Doug Arent
Part 1: Global Wind Supply Curves - Patrick Sullivan
Integrating New Wind Potentials at NIES - Shinichiro Fujimori
Part 2: IAM Crosscut - Resource Scenarios
Presentation Supplement - Patrick Sullivan
IAM Perspective on Wind Resource Potentials - Nico Bauer
General discussion about next steps to improve resource potentials for IAM's - Bas van Ruijven (Moderator)
Storage & Flexibility Options for VRRE Integration? - Paul Denholm
The Economics of Variability & Implications for IAM's - Falko Ueckerdt
Results from IAM low/high integration scenarios (revised) - Robert Pietzcker
IAM Discussion on Wind Energy - Leon Clarke
"Bottom-up Discussant on IAM VRRE integration" - Paul Denholm
Discussion on possible future integration constraints
Discussion of cost metrics for (and parameterization of) integration constraints
Next steps for VRRE Integration Analysis - ADVANCE meeting in November - Leon Clarke (Moderator)
Tuesday, July 23, 2013
Session #1 continued:
Crosscut - Competition & Carbon - Nico Bauer
Technology Characterization Wilson: Technology Characterization - Tom Wilson
Technology Characterization - Top-Down, Bottom-Up Integration - Ian Sue Wing
Importane of Modeling Renewables - Wide-Angle Perspective - Asami Miketa
Group discussion: Priorities, Reactions, and Comments - John Weyant & Doug Arent (Moderators)
Next Steps for the Renewables Initiative: Special Issue? Time frame. Next study operating committee. - Doug Arent (Moderator)
Integrated Impacts Overview - John Weyant
Papers & Readings from Session #1:
Improved Offshore Wind Resource Assessment in Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios - Doug Arent
PNNL EST Global Wind 2013 - Yuyu Zhou, Patrick Lucklow, Steven J. Smith, and Leon Clarke
PNNL CSP Energy Policy Paper - Yabei Zhang, Steven J. Smith, G. Page Kyle, and Paul W. Stackhouse Jr.
Impacts of Considering Electric Sector Variability and Reliability in the MESSAGE model - Patrick Sullivan, Volker Krey, and Keywan Riahi
Variable Renewable Energy in modeling climate change mitigation scenarios - Falko Ueckerdt, Robert Brecha, Gunnar Luderer, Patrick Sullivan, Eva Schmid, Nico Bauer, and Diana Böttger
Climate Change - Nico Bauer
Wednesday, July 24, 2013
Session #2: Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment
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Organized by Gary Yohe, Rich Richels, Tony Janetos, Max Tavoni, and John Weyant
Integrated Impacts Overview - John Weyant
"What do Policy Makers want to know? How do we communicate it?" - Joe Aldy, Allen Fawcett, Juan-Carlos Ciscar, Saleem Huq, & T.C. Richmond (Panelists)
Climate Extremes Research (revised) - Ken Kunkel
Climate Change Research- Recent Findings & New Directions -Don Weubbles
What Policy Makers Want to Know - Allen Fawcett
CIRA - Estimating Avoided Impacts from GHG Mitigation - Allen Fawcett
Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts in Europe - Juan-Carlos Ciscar
Thursday, July 25, 2013
Session #2 continued:
Introduction - Gary Yohe (Moderator)
Valuing Market & Non-Market Impacts - Charles Kolstad
Role of Adaptation Wilbanks: Role of Adaptation - Tom Wilbanks
Discussion - Gary Yohe & David Anthoff (moderators)
Measuring Impacts - Robert Mendelsohn
Approaches to Modeling Impacts - Anthony Janetos
Approaches to Measuring Impacts - Karen Fisher-Vanden
Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways - Shinichiro Fujimori
Discussion - Niven Winchester & Kate Calvin (Moderators)
Modeling Catastrophes Rutherford: Modeling Catastrophes - Thomas Rutherford
Characterizing Impacts - Richard Richels
Real Impacts - Irene & Sandy Solecki: Real Impacts - Irene & Sandy - William Solecki
"Take Home Messages for Policy Makers" - T.C. Richmond, Juan-Carlos Ciscar, & Saleem Huq
Friday, July 26, 2013
Session #2 continued:
Introduction - Richard Richels (Moderator)
"The social cost of carbon" - Stephanie Waldhoff
"Can USG SCC's guide climate policy?" - Steven Rose
Pricing Carbon - Gary Yohe
"The Importance of Scenarios in Climate Change Impacts Analyses" - Richard Moss
"A political economy" - Joe Aldy (Panelist)
"A political economy" - David Victor (Panelist)
Thoughts on the Political Economy of Climate Change Policy - Jonathan Wiener
"A political economy" - Reilly, John (Panelist & discussion leader)
Climate Change Impacts - Connecting Science with IAM's - Ian Sue Wing
"Science Needs" - Kate Calvin (Panelist)
Needs from Science - John Reilly
"Science Needs" - Don Wuebbles & Ken Kunkel (Panelist & discussion leaders)
Integrated Assessment Modeling - Where do we want to be in five years? - Jae Edmonds
IAM - Detlef van Vuuren (Panelist)
MIT's Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) - John Reilly
MERGE Impacts - Steven Rose
IAM's Panel - Enrica De Cian
"Representative Consumers" - Juan-Carlos Ciscar (Panelist)
"Representative Consumers" - David Victor (Panelist)
"Representative Consumers" - Jonathan Pershing (Panelist)
Papers & Readings from Session #2:
Article related to morning panel sessio: |Determining Benefits and Costs for Future Generations
Are Cereals Globally in Trouble? - De Cian
Two papers submitted by Toshihiko Masui: "Global Water Scarcity Assessment" Part 1 & Part 2 - Shinichiro Fujimori
Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries| (free registration required) -Robert Mendelsohn
NPCC-Climate-Risk-Information-2013-Report - William Solecki
- Wiener, Jonathan B & Richman, Barak D - "Mechanism Choice," chapter 11 in Farber, Daniel A & O'Connell, Anne Josepth, eds., Research Handbook on Public Choice and Public Law (Elgar, Edward 2010), pp. 363-396.
Monday, July 29, 2013
Week Two Overview - John Weyant
Session #3: Uncertainty Analysis in Integrated Assessment Models
- Conveners: Ken Gillingham and Bill Nordhaus
"Overview of the Project" - Bill Nordhaus
Uncertainty Analysis in IAM's - Major Steps over the Last Year - Ken Gillingham
Observations from MERGE uncertainty modeling round 2 - Steven Rose
MUP - Full Permutation Experiment with GCAM - Haewon McJeon
MUP Fund Contribution - David Anthoff
MUG-WITCH - De Cian
"Review of parallel tracks for the project and suggested approach for developing response functions, with example using DICE - Bill Nordhaus
Uncertainty Analysis in IAM's - Approach for Development of PDF's - Ken Gillingham
MUP - Expert Elicitation of Long Run Economic Growth - Peter Christensen
"Suggest approach for developing response function with example using the DICE model" - Bill Nordhaus
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
Session #4: Workshop on Informing Risk Management Decisions in the Face of Deeply Uncertain Sea-Level Rise Projections
- Co-organized by Klaus Keller and Rob Lempert
Welcome, introduction, and overview of decision-problems & analytical challenges - Klaus Keller
Threshold behavior in ice sheets - Physical origins of deep uncertainty - Tad Pfeffer
Characterizing the probability of tail area events in sea-level rise - Nathan Urban
Using the geological past to inform sea-level rise projections - Robert Kopp
"Informing sea-level rise adaptation decisions under deep uncertainty" - David Johnson
Interplay between adaptation capacity, mitigation, & geoengineering - Robert Lempert
Representation of Geoengineering in IAM's - Detlef van Vuuren
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
Session #4 continued:
Representation of Different Ethical Frameworks in IAM's - David Anthoff
Beyond Cost Benefit Analysis - Granger Morgan
Coupled epistemic ethical issues in analyzing sea-level rise risk management strategies - Nancy Tuana
Session #5: Scenarios for Climate Research and Assessment
- Organizing Committee: Jae Edmonds, Elmar Kriegler, Jerry Meehl, Richard Moss, and John Weyant
Overview of Workshop on Scenarios for Integrated IAM-ESM-IAV Research - Richard Moss
Policy Drivers and Information Needs - Jonathan Pershing
CMIP5 outcomes & CMIP6 requirements - Jerry Meehl
IAM SSP & SSP-RCP replications - Keywan Riahi
Land use harmonization for CMIP5 and priorities for CMIP6 - George Hurtt
Initial SSP Land Use Results- Implications for Near-Term IAM Development - Stephanie Waldhoff
Experience with Land Use / Land Cover Exchange in CMIP5 - Peter Lawrence
Including Albedo Affects in IAM Scenarios - Kate Calvin
Papers & Readings for Session #5:
A Strategy for Climate Change Stabilization Experiments
The representative concentration pathways - an overview
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research & assessment
- Richard Moss
Thursday, August 1, 2013
Session #5: Scenarios for Climate Research and Assessment
- Organizing Committee: Jae Edmonds, Elmar Kriegler, Jerry Meehl, Richard Moss, and John Weyant
LaMarque: Short-lived climate forcers CMIP5 and CMIP6| - Jean Francois LaMarque
Energy systems and Emissions in SSP/ SSP-RCP replications - Detlef VanVuuren
Uncertainty in global and regional emissions from the energy systems| - Granger Morgan
"Policy perspectives and questions for IAM analysis"- Overshoot Scenarios - Elmar Kriegler
Mitigating anthropogenic climate change and the future of carbon cycle in overshoot worlds - Nebojsa Nakicenovic
Analysis and Risk Management of Overshoot Futures - Kris Ebi
Agency Needs for Scenario Products: DoD Coastal Installation Assessment - John Hall
"Downscaling and applying LCUS: EPA ICLUS"- Land Use Scenarios for the U.S.: Interpreting Global Storylines for National-Scale Assessments - Britta Bierwagen
Water resources planning: US Army Corps of Engineers - Jeff Arnold
"USFS Resources Planning Act Assessment"- 2010 RPA Assessment: Past, present, and future of America’s forests and rangelands - Linda Langner
Matching Climate, Socioeconomic, and Environmental Scenarios in Applications - Brian O'Neill
Scenarios for Decision Support - Anand Patwardan
"Regional analysis using CORDEX and socioeconomic scenarios"- Use of Experimental Design in Climate Change Experiments: Examples from NARCCAP and NA-CORDEX| - Linda Mearns
"Pattern scaling for pairing climate and socio economic scenarios"- Pattern scaling for pairing climate and socio economic scenarios - Ron Stouffer
"Improving user access to consistent scenarios: Earth Systems Grid" - How Can Communities Less Familiar with Climate Models be Better Served Data? - Karl Taylor