Snowmass Workshop - 2014

Availability: By invitation only

Location: Snowmass, Colorado, USA

Investigator: John Weyant

Event Coordinator: Susan Sweeney

This meeting is organized by the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) at Stanford University for a consortium of sponsors including the U.S. Department of Energy, the National Institute of Environmental Studies of Japan, the Electric Power Research Institute, and Exxon Mobil Corporation.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

SESSION 1:  INTEGRATED IMPACTS

Welcome & Introduction of Steering Committee

• John Weyant, Stanford University

National Climate Assessment

• Tony Janetos, Boston University

IPCC WG2

• Ian Noble, Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange

Risky Business

• Bob Kopp, Rutgers University

Social Cost of Carbon

• Stephanie Waldhoff-(remote), Joint Global Change Research Institute

Energy, Water, Land Climate Change Interactions:  A DOE Perspective

• Bob Vallario, U.S. Department of Energy

City of Boston Climate Impacts and Adaptation Planning

• Brian Swett, City of Boston

 

The State of the Art in Understanding Potential Climate Impacts and Adaptation

Energy: Empirical estimates of impacts

• Ian Sue Wing, Boston University

Water: Process modeling of water

Additional Reading: Quantifying the link between crop production and mined groundwater irrigation in China (by Danielle S. Grogan, Fan Zhang, Alexander Prusevich)

• Steve Frolking, University of New Hampshire

Water

•  Pat Reed, Penn State University

Adaptation for city infrastructure

•  Paul Kirshen, University of New Hampshire

Sea Level and Extreme Events

• Bob Kopp, Rutgers University

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

 

The State of the Art in Understanding Potential Climate Impacts and Adaptation (continued)

Agriculture: Empirical estimates of impacts

• Wolfram Schlenker, Columbia University

Agriculture: Empirical estimates of adaptation

• Rob Mendelsohn, Yale University

Agriculture: Process models of impacts/adaptation

• Allison Thomson, JGCRI/PNNL

 

Moving Forward with Model-Based Impacts Assessment

Introduction and goals of the session

• Kate Calvin, JGCRI/PNNL

Part 1: Individual Sector Studies

Energy

• Ian Sue Wing, Boston University

Agriculture

Additional Reading:  AgMIP’s Trans-disciplinary Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impact, Vulnerability and Adaptation of Agricultural Systems (Authors: John Antle, Roberto Valdivia, Ken Boote, Jerry Hatfield, Sander Janssen, Jim Jones,Cheryl Porter, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alex Ruane, and Peter Thorburn)

• John Antle, Oregon State University

Food Security

• Tomoko Hasegawa, National Institute for Environmental Studies 

Water

Additional Reading:  Climate Change Adaptation and Water Resource Management: A Review of the Literature by Sheila M. Olmstead

• Jim Shortle, Penn State University

Extreme Events and Catastrophes

• Michael Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBL)

Additional Reading:  Integrated Impacts and Infrastructure Planning

• Tom Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)

 

Thursday, July 24, 2014

 

Moving Forward with Model-Based Impacts Assessment (continued)

Part 2: Multi-sectoral studies

Energy-water-land at the sub-national scale

Additional Reading:  Investigating the nexus of climate, energy, water,and land at decision-relevant scales: the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA)--(Authors: Ian Kraucunas, Leon Clarke, James Dirks, John Hathaway, Mohamad Hejazi, Kathy Hibbard, Maoyi Huang,  Chunlian Jin, Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kerstin Kleese van Dam, Ruby Leung, Hong-Yi Li, Richard Moss, Marty Peterson, Jennie Rice, Michael Scott, Allison Thomson, Nathalie Voisin and Tristram West.)

• Ian Kraucunas, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Energy-water-land at the national scale

• Jim McFarland, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Energy-water-land at the global scale

• Katja Frieler, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research

 

Part 3: Understanding aggregate economic impacts

The social cost of carbon

• David Anthoff, University of California at Berkeley

PESETA

• Juan-Carlos Ciscar, IPTS/EC

Open Discussion

• Bryan Mignone, U.S. Department of Energy

 

Moving Forward with IAMs

GCAM Modeling Energy-Water-Land Impacts 

• Jae Edmonds, JGCRI/PNNL

IGSM - *** 

• John Reilly, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

MERGE - *** 

• Geoff Blanford, EPRI

MESSAGE  *** 

• Detlef van Vuuren, PBL

 

Friday, July 25 , 2014

 

Summary- Addressing our Science Questions

• John Weyant, Stanford University

Topic #1 Discussion

• Steve Rose, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)

Topic #2 Discussion

• Bas van Ruijven, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)

Topic #3 Discussion

• Habiba Gitay, World Bank

Topic #4 Discussion

• Erwan Monier, MIT

Topic #5 Discussion

• ​Kate Gordon, Next Generation

 

​--Summary of Previous Sessions and Next Steps--Part 1

Congressional Outlook for Climate Policy

• Jeff Bingaman, Retired U.S. Senator

Revisiting Our Users

• Bob Vallario, U.S. Department of Energy; Jim McFarland, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency & others

 

--Summary of Previous Sessions and Next Steps--Part 2

Setting the stage

• Tony Janetos, Boston University

The state of the art

• Karen Fisher-Vanden, Penn State University

Moving forward with impacts assessment

• Kate Calvin, JGCRI/PNNL

Moving forward with IAMs

• Geoff Blanford, EPRI

 

Monday, July 28, 2014

 

SESSION 2:  ON MODELING UNCERTAINTY PROJECT (MUP)

Overview of the Project and the Parallel Track Approach

• Bill Nordhaus and Ken Gillingham, Yale University

Overview of Results Using the Lattice Diagrams

• Bill Nordhaus and Paul Sztorc, Yale University

Surface Response Functions and Discussion

• Modeler's Presentations by:  MERGE, FUND, GCAM, IGSM, WITCH, DICE
• Bill Nordhaus, Yale University and Paul Sztorc, Yale University

General Discussion of Track I Methods and Results

• Jae Edmonds 

 

Overview of Development

• Ken Gillingham, Yale University

Expert Elicitation of Total Factor Productivity

• Peter Christensen, Yale University and Elmar Kreigler, Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research

Temperature sensitivity coefficient 

• Ken Gillingham, Yale University and Klaus Keller, Penn State University

Stochastic Projections of Population

• Bill Nordhaus, Yale University and John Reilly, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Illustrative Results Combining the Two Tracks

• Bill Nordhaus and Paul Sztorc, Yale University 

General Discussion

 

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

 

SESSION 3:  WORKSHOP ON DECISION ANALYSIS FOR CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT

Welcome, Introduction, and Overview of the Decision-Problems and Analytical Challenges

• Klaus Keller, Penn State University

Coupled Epistemic Ethic Questions in Climate Risk Management

• Nancy Tuana, Penn State University

Deep Uncertainty and Decision Analysis

• Detlof von Winterfeldt, USC

How do Decisionmakers Decide?

• David Budescu, Fordham University

Utilitarianism, Prioritarianism, and Climate Change

• Matthew Adler, Duke Law School

Strengths and Weaknesses of Expected Utility Maximization

• Bill Nordhaus, Yale University

Decisionmaking under Deep Uncertainty and Disagreement

• Geoffrey Heal, Columbia University

Robust Decisionmaking, Value Diversity, Trade-off Analyses

• Rob Lempert, Rand Corporation

 

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

 

SESSION 4: NEEDS FOR SCENARIOS: SCIENCE, ASSESSMENTS AND DECISIONMAKING

Overview

• Richard Moss, JGCRI/PNNL, John Weyant, and Steering Committee

Integrating Socioeconomic, Climate, and Environmental Scenarios – Status Update and Key Questions

• Brian O’Neill, UCAR and Steering Committee

Connecting Scenarios and Impacts Research: Needs and Capabilities -- Report from Impacts Session Week 1

• Kate Calvin, JGCRI/PNNL

Overview: Review of the Challenges and Session Objectives

• ​Klaus Keller, Penn State University

Need for and Use of Probabilistic Climate Projections

• Suraje Dessai, University of Leeds, and Robert Lempert, Rand Corporation

Climate Modeling Approaches for Providing Probabilistic Information on Potential Future Climates

• Jerry Meehl, NCAR 

An Overview of Approaches to Probabilistic Projections of Future Climate Changes

• Claudia Tebaldi, Climate Central/NCAR

Probabilistic Futures for Emissions and Forcing

• Keywan Riahi, IIASA and Detlef van Vuuren, PBL

Expert Elicitation and Parametric Analysis Using Boundary Conditions

• Detlof von Winterfeldt, USC

Discussion: Probabilistic Scenarios

• Ben Preston, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

 

Thursday, July 31, 2014

Introduction

• Jae Edmonds, JGCRI/PNNL (w/ input from Patwardhan, Riahi)

SSPs: Status and Analysis of Early Results

• Keywan Riahi, IIASA

Water and Environmental Resources Adaptation Planning:  Information Needs

• Levi Brekke, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Integrating Extreme Events into Climate Risk Management

• Tom Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Introduction

• Anand Patwardhan, University of Maryland

Climate, Conflict, Health, and Economy Interactions 

• Elisabeth Gilmore, University of Maryland

The Joint Research Center PESETA II (Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis)

• Juan-Carlos Ciscar, IPTS/EC

Global Change and Food Security Project

• Joost Vervoort, Oxford University

Nested downscaled scenarios for resource assessment

• Ben Sleeter, U.S. Geological Survey

Coordinating national/subnational scale scenarios in the US

• Fred Lipschultz – USGCRP/NASA

 

Friday, August 1, 2014

General Discussion

• Brian O’Neill, UCAR 

Introduction

• Detlef van Vuuren, PBL

Possible questions that ScenarioMIP (and other related MIPs) could address, and implications for scenarios

• Brian O’Neill, UCAR

Experimental design considerations: The role of pattern scaling, statistical sampling of GCMs, and the significance of differences between climate scenarios

• Claudia Tebaldi, Climate Central/NCAR

Plans for Aerosols and Chemistry MIP (AerChemMIP) and relevance to ScenarioMIP

• Jean-Francois Lamarque, NCAR 

Plans for Land Use MIP (LUMIP) and relevance to ScenarioMIP

• Kate Calvin, PNNL

Proposal for Land Use Model Inter-comparison project (LUMIP) 

• George Hurtt, University of Maryland

Status of IAM scenarios based on SSPs, and relevance to possible ScenarioMIP design

• Detlef van Vuuren, PBL

Group Discussion

• Kate Calvin, PNNL

Group Discussion

• Ian Noble, Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange

Summary 

John Weyant, Stanford University