Stanford Engineering
Energy Modeling Forum

Snowmass Workshop - 2015

Event Details:

Tuesday, July 21, 2015 - Friday, July 31, 2015

Location

Snowmass, CO
United States

Week 1

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Welcome & Introduction

  • John Weyant, Stanford University

Underlying Questions to be addressed in each session:

  • How good is the emissions data and can it be improved?
  • What are the major uncertainties?
  • How realistic are the mitigation estimates?
  • How can the degree of compliance be improved?
  • What are the major uncertainties for emissions and mitigation estimates?
  • Is the current resolution (spatial, sectorial, and technological) of the IAMs sufficient to address key impacts at global and regional scale?
  • How important is this for RF/Temp/Precipitation and IAMs in general?

 

Session #1: Short Lived Climate Forcers/Air Quality

Steering Committee: S. Smith, Z. Klimont, G. Luderer, D. van Vuuren, J. Weyant

Presentation of EMF 30 current progress, results and future plans

Short review of related community projects

  • John Weyant, Stanford University

Integrating SLCF futures in climate research ​

  • Joeri Rogelj, IIASA, Austria

Methane: Mitigation, MACs, and Reality

Representing methane emission mitigation in current IAMs and their scenarios?

  • Detlef van Vuuren, PBL, Netherlands

EPA MAC Curves and voluntary programs

  • Marcus Sarofim, U.S. EPA

Methane Mitigation

  • Zig Klimont, IIASA, Austria

BC from transportation: how much now and future?

Overview of transport sector in IAMs, mode and fuel shifts

  • Steve Smith,  JGCRI/PNNL

Black carbon emissions from transportation where we stand

  • Mike Walsh, International Consultant

BC from transportation: How much now, and future?

  • Valerie Karplus, MIT

 

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Health impacts: epidemiology to exposure

What do we know about health impacts of ozone and particulates and how do we know this?

Epidemiology

  • Bart Ostro, University of California, Davis  and California EPA

From emissions to exposure, use of impact functions

  • Jason West, University of North Carolina

FASST

  • Rita van Dingenen  (remotely), Air and Climate Unit, Europa, Italy

Residential sector: fuel use and other drivers of emissions

Residential sector

  • Zig Klimont, IIASA, Austria

Top-Down Monitoring of Household Energy Use

  • Heather Adair-Rohani (remotely), World Health Organization

Residential sector: emissions and mitigation potential

Presentation

  • Nicholas Lam, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Presentation

  • Ilse Ruiz-Mercado, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico

Air pollution policy in Asia

Presentation

  • Valerie Karplus, MIT

Thursday, July 23, 2015

Session #2: Lessons from the CMU Center on Environmental Decision Making Center

Steering Committee: Ines Azevedo, Granger Morgan

Overview of >25 years of HDGC, CDMC and CEDM

  • Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon University

Today’s session will provide an overview of more than twenty-five years of climate and energy research conducted in three successive NSF supported centers that have been anchored at Carnegie Mellon University:

The center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change (HDGC) from 1995-2003: http://hdgc.epp.cmu.edu

The Climate Decision Making Center (CDMC) from 2003 to 2010:

http://cdmc.epp.cmu.edu

The Climate and Energy Decision Making Center (CEDM) from 2010 to 2020: http://cedmcenter.org

Scientific uncertainty, subjective expert judgment, and heterogeneity have played key roles in shaping the work of all three of these centers. The day will begin by tracing the evolution of the work from a central focus on integrated assessment models at the global scale to a focus on distributed decision-making; a move from a global to a more local focus, and a transition from a century-scale perspective to a more decadal perspective. These more local studies (where policies are enacted and impacts occur) have significant lessons for IA modelers.  Hence, the balance of the day will be devoted to reports of results and insights from a number of recent research projects

 

SUB SESSION 1:  Uncertainty in energy efficiency

Part 1: Technologies, Strategies, behavior and policy

  • Ines Azevedo, Carnegie Mellon University

Part 2: Technologies, Strategies, behavior and policy

  • Alex Davis, Carnegie Mellon University

Decision Support for implementing the EPA Clean Power Plan Prosed Rule

  • Jeff Anderson, Carnegie Mellon University

Marginal emissions factors, health and climate change co benefits and trade-offs

  • Inez Azevedo, Carnegie Mellon University

Insights from 25 years of work on forecasting and expert elicitation

  • Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon University

SUB SESSION 2: Transitioning to a low carbon economy

Part I: Insights from the RenewElec Project

  • Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon University

Part 2: Insights from ITC and BC’s Climate Policy

  • Hadi Dowlatabadi, University British Columbia (remotely)

Strategies for supporting investment decisions about large energy infrastructure in the face of regulatory and other uncertainty

  • Dalia Patino-Echeverri , Duke University

Reflections on Research and Governance with Albedo Modification

  • Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon University

Insights from our Experience in Building and Using ICAMs

  • Hadi Dowlatabadi, University British Columbia

Muddling through on climate policy: good, but not good enough to avoid the risk of dead ends

  • Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon University

Friday, July 24, 2015

Session #3 Approaches to uncertainty in IAM analyses, including whether or not community scenarios would have probabilities attached to them

Steering Committee: Valentina Bosetti, Klaus Keller, John Weyant

Welcome & Introduction

  • John Weyant, Stanford University, Valentina Bosetti, Bocconi University, Italy

Taking Stock 1 (Uncertainty Drivers and SSPs)

  • Klaus Keller, Pennsylvania State University

Taking Stock 2 (MIP global sensitivity and uncertainty)

  • Massimo Tavoni, FEEM, Italy

Taking Stock 3 (SCC and Uncertainty)

  • David Anthoff, University of California, Berkeley

JDM perspective on science supported decision making

  • David Budescu, Fordham University

Uncertainty, statistics and science supported decision making

  • Peter Challenor, University of Exeter, United Kingdom

SRM as a risk management option

  • Kenichi Wada, RITE-Japan

Week 2

Monday, July 27, 2015

Modeling Under Uncertainty Project (MUP) Update

Chair: Bill Nordhaus, Kenneth Gillingham, Yale University

Introduction

Part I.  Presentation of the results of the MUP project to date

  • Bill Nordhaus and Kenneth Gillingham, Yale University

Overview, Calibration, PDFs

  • Kenneth Gillingham, Yale University

Survey of productivity growth

  • Peter Christensen, Yale University

Presentation of major results

  • Bill Nordhaus, Yale University

Part II.  Modeler’s Presentations

Part III.  Continuation of Discussion by outside discussants

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Integrated Impacts/Scenarios Session

(Steering Committee: Kate Calvin, Richard Moss, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Mike Mastrandrea, Chris Weaver, John Weyant)

Objectives:

  • Advance the science of modeling climate change impacts by focusing on key challenges in different sectors. The goal is not a comprehensive review of modeling impacts, but rather a deep dive in a few specific areas.
  • Facilitate interactions and understanding across research communities.
  • Review and assess experience with current state of the art approaches to integrated scenario development, impacts assessment, and uncertainty analysis.
  • Develop recommendations for future integrative analysis by individual modeling teams and the community as a whole. Both scientific understanding and policy (including information on research priorities) needs for scientific information will be considered.

Challenges in modeling impacts:

  • LAND: the effect of climate change extremes on agriculture
  • ENERGY: the effect climate change on electricity supply
  • WATER: the effect of regulation on the ability to adapt to climate change

Welcome and goals for the session

  • John Weyant and Kate Calvin, JGCRI/PNNL

Part 1: Overarching issues with respect to impacts

Chair: John Weyant, Stanford University

 Future directions for the global impacts assessments (PICC WG2)

  • Mike Mastrandrea, Near Zero/ Carnegie Institute for Science

Future directions for USA Impacts Assessments (NCA)

  • Glynis Lough, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Future directions for European Impacts Assessment (PESETA)

  • Juan Carlos Ciscar, European Commission, Spain

Drivers and societal conditions: SSPs and CMIP6

  • Detlef van Vuuren, PBL, Netherlands

Interactions across impact sectors

  • Keywan Riahi, IIASA, Austria

Interactions between impacts, adaptations and mitigation

  • Karen Fisher-Vanden, Penn State University

Part 2: Challenges in modeling agriculture impacts, focusing on climate change extremes

Chair:  Mike Mastrandrea, Near Zero/ Carnegie Institute for Science

Overview of agricultural impacts, including any previous work

  • Tom Hertel, Purdue University

Understanding the science: What do we know from field/lab studies?  What don’t we know?

  • Heather McCarthy, University of Oklahoma

Representing climate & environmental conditions: How well are we equipped to model climate change extremes?  How well can we improve? What are data/resolution needs?

  •  Travis O’Brien, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab

Representing the physical processes: How well are we equipped to model the effect of climate extremes on crop yields?  How can we improve?

  • Alex Ruane, NASA GISS  (remote)

Representing interactions in IA models: What is needed to include this in an IA model? How will these effects interact with energy/water/land/economy? Are other effects co-indicated?

  • Kate Calvin, JGCRI/PNNL

 Discussants:

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

USGCRP Perspective

  • Gary Geernaert, U.S. Department of Energy

Part 3: Challenges in modeling impacts on the water cycle, focusing on adaptation

Chair: Leon Clarke, JGCRI/PNNL

Overview of water cycle impacts, including any previous work 

  • David Yates, NCAR

Understanding the science: What adaptation options are available? What are policy limits to adaptation?

  • Sheila Olmstead, University of Texas at Austin

Representing climate & environmental conditions: How well are we equipped to model precipitation, stream flow, and stream temperature? How can we improve? What are data/resolution needs?

  • David Yates, NCAR

Representing the physical processes: How well are we equipped to water availability? How can we improve? 

  • Richard Lammers, University of New Hampshire

Representing interactions in IA models:  What is needed to include this in an IA model?  How will these effects interact with energy/water/land/economy?  Are other effects co-indicated

  • John Reilly, MIT

Discussants:

  • Jeff Arnold, University of Washington
  •  Jim McFarland, U.S. EPA
  • Jae Edmonds, JGCRI/PNNL

Part 4: Challenges in modeling energy system impacts, focusing on electricity supply

Chair: Kate Calvin, JGCRI/PNNL

Overview of energy impacts, including any previous work

  • Guido Franco, California Energy Commission

 Understanding the science and representing climate & environmental conditions: What are the technical effects of climate change on electricity supply? How well are we equipped to model wind and solar? What are data/resolution needs?

  • Lawrence Buja, NCAR

Representing the physical processes: How well are we equipped to model climate effects on electricity supply?  How can we improve?

  • Ian Kraucunas, JGCRI/PNNL

Representing interactions in IA models: What is needed to include this in an IA model?  How will these effects interact with energy/water/land/economy? Are other effects co-indicated?

  • Leon Clarke,  JGCRI/PNNL

Discussants:

  • Bob Vallario, U.S. Department of Energy
  • Elmar Kriegler, PIK, Germany
  • Ian Sue Wing, Boston University

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Part 5:  Cross-Sectorial Technical Issues

Chair: Kate Calvin, JGCRI/PNNL

Panel of IA modelers to discuss linkages across sectors (e.g., energy, water, land, infrastructure, sea level rise, health):

  • Leon Clarke, JGCRI, PNNL
  • Delavane Diaz, Stanford University
  • Kristi Ebi, University of Washington
  • Tom Hertel, Purdue University
  • John Reilly, MIT

Uncertainty Frameworks

  •  Massimo Tavoni, FEEM

Providing probabilistic climate information (or not)

  • Valentina Bossetti,  Bocconi University, Italy

Special talk on energy efficiency and carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S.

  • Jim Sweeney, Stanford University

 

 

Friday, July 31, 2015

Part 6: Future directions, including recommendations for future integrative analysis by individual modeling teams and the IAM community as a whole

Chair: Richard Moss, JGCRI/PNNL

Research Needs and Opportunities Panel: What did we learn this week? What areas are interesting for future research?

  • Ted Cope, NGA
  • Bryan Mignone or Haroon Kheshgi, ExxonMobil
  • Jim McFarland, U.S. EPA
  • Jonathan Pershing, U.S. DOE
  • Bob Vallario U.S. DOE
  • Charles Covel, DHS

Modeling Panel: What did we learn this week?  What progress can be made on the issues discussed this week?

  • Gerry Meehl, NCAR
  • Tony Janetos, Boston University (remote)
  • Others TBD

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