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EMF 35: Japan model intercomparison project (JMIP) on long-term climate policy

Ongoing

Investigators

Abstract: 
The EMF 35 JMIP study will investigate into the role of technologies in the long-term climate policy and energy strategies of Japan. It will address the impact of key technologies such as renewables, nuclear power, and carbon capture and storage in climate mitigation pathways, and examine economic, environmental, and social implications. The study will contribute to the ongoing policy debate about Japan's long-term climate policy, both domestically and internationally (such as those under the Paris Agreement).

Japan's energy policy is at a critical juncture. As Japan is still trying to manage the ramifications of the 2011 nuclear disaster caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake, the country faces many important energy choices regarding nuclear power, renewables, end-use technologies, and carbon capture and storage (CCS).

This study attempts to provide a multi-model analysis of a range of possible climate and energy policy pathways over the period up to 2050. It will examine the effects of technology choices and the relationship between the mid-term policy (up to 2030) and the long-term policy (by 2050) as well as the challenges of climate action by sector.
This study builds on the previous exercises for other regions (in particular, EMF 24 US climate policy and EMF 28 climate policy of the European Union).

The key research questions include:
* What would the Japan energy system transition look like to meet the emissions reductions goals in 2030 and 2050, as laid out in its nationally determined contribution (NDC) and its long-term vision?
* What is the interplay between the 2030 and 2050 targets?
* How might technological improvements and technological availability influence the two questions above?

The steering committee for the EMF 35 JMIP is:

  • Shinichiro Fujimori: Kyoto University
  • Masahiro Sugiyama: The University of Tokyo
  • Kenichi Wada: Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth
  • John Weyant: Stanford University

Publications:

  • (pilot-phase publication, preceding the official start of EMF 35 JMIP)

Sugiyama, M., Fujimori, S., Wada, K., Endo, S., Fujii, Y., Komiyama, R., Kato, E., Kurosawa, A., Matsuo, Y., Oshiro, K., Sano, F., & Shiraki, H. (2019). Japan's long-term climate mitigation policy: Multi-model assessment and sectoral challenges. Energy, 167, 1120-1131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.10.091

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